That's the general direction, but had a little more than that in mind.

In prediction markets people bet on a future outcome and then these bets are traded in a market. Turns out that the price that they trade at converge to the perceived (and often the underlying) probabilities of those outcomes. Options market has a similar structure, people bet on the future price of a stock. What I am interested in if there is any study that shows whether the prices on these outcomes track their probabilities.