CIA director says he is escalating efforts to solve 'Havana Syndrome'
npr.org
npr.org
It's a US embassy. It's full of spy equipment. If it was microwaves, they'd have a full recording of the spectrum and would have probably triangulated it by now.
If I had to guess, my guess would be on the countermeasures deployed there. Critical enough to keep secret even if they knew what was the cause.
Anyway, Hollywood spies do kind of exist - but they aren't the Rosenbergs breakdance fighting on a rooftop. They're active duty military on "loan" to the NSA's Special Collection Service. They rarely return to the military, not because a life of blackbag jobs and no stability is fun, but because the military really doesn't want them after the CIA has potentially screwed them up.
I don't know which intelligence agency they worked for, though; not even which country. I presumed they worked for either the U.S. or Israel; probably the latter given the low-tech, laborious method. The person didn't tell me directly. My boss told me about our visitor's career after they left. I was working at a political advocacy organization that promoted U.S.-Israeli security ties and which regularly worked with people--mostly retired--from the intelligence and defense communities.
This is obviously just a guess... assuming this took place on US soil: it sounds to me like that dude worked for somebody doing something "extra-legal" and it wasn't the USG. Israeli is a pretty big fan of honeytraps and blackmailing intelligence assets. So that is where I'd put my money.
Also: the civilian side of the US intel industry puts almost zero effort into OPSEC. Just search LinkedIn for prior military who list "remote sensing" or whatever the current euphemism is for NSA stingray tender, you'll get a results page full of laughably low effort cutouts.
IIRC, Europe was mentioned. That doesn't necessarily exclude other countries, including the U.S., but this organization had relationships with and members retired from high-ranking government offices, including CIA directors, defense secretaries, Pentagon leadership, etc. IOW, not the kind of place that would consort (at least knowingly and in the office) with people who directly participated in intelligence operations against the U.S. At least until the Trump Administration current and former officials were still rather hostile to the threat of intelligence operations against them.
Only in popularizations are the two roles confused - though I suppose there are rare circumstances in which an officer goes undercover in order to directly pilfer secrets, as opposed to recruiting someone who can. Hard and rare one expects: language, culture and competent counter-intel have made recruiting someone already inside easier and wiser.
Also I don’t think competent professional spies have ever used “movie inspired” anything, but the generous interpretation of your comment assumes you meant the reverse.
But still a poor assumption to think the fiction ever got it right, starting with the confusion over what an “agent” is but including everything else.
Excepting Graham Greene’s “Our Man in Havana” and “The Quiet American,” which I suspect nailed the respective damnfool incompetence and arrogant ignorance of a certain type of mid-century patriot keenly. “Harlot’s Ghost,” though mystical, may also speak bizarro truth.
One day he was ordered to verify a DAP meeting, and actually liked what was told. Someone pissed him of, causing him to start one of his famous angry speeches. The DAP was impressed, offered him a position, and the resulting meteoric rise ultimately started a world war.
IIRC, I do not think they're claiming these attacks happen at the embassy itself. My understanding is most, if not all, embassy staff live outside the embassy in local housing, and that most of these events are claimed to have happened there.
So the embassy is probably full of equipment like you describe, but a diplomat's apartment is not. IIRC, earlier, when the government wasn't taking these reports seriously, diplomats were complaining that they weren't being given adequate monitoring equipment [1]/
[1] Their complaints included funny sounds, so they were only given a microphone and has their complaints dismissed when the microphone didn't pick anything unusual up. Apparently microwaves can also trigger the (false) perception of sound, but they were not given anything to detect those.
https://hackaday.com/2021/07/20/the-gatwick-drone-little-by-...
Additionally, everyone keeps insinuating this is Russia, but I have yet to see a single person articulate an answer to "what does this actually accomplish?" that wasn't empty blather. Moreover, to carry out some similar attack in a variety of nations around the world would take an enormous investment in resources, and would carry a grave risk of exposure. Again, to accomplish what exactly?
The proposed mechanisms don't hold water either. Ultrasound doesn't go through masonry walls. Microwaves struggle to as well, but also embassy's are bristling with spectrum monitoring equipment. If someone was blasting buildings with RF they'd know it.
My personal view is something did happen in Havana, and organophosphate exposure seems the most likely to me. They fumigate way over health limits in the rich part of the city, and I could see embassy staff not acclimatized to it having a reaction.
Once the idea of a mystery weapon attacking embassy staff idea was planted in the minds of our diplomatic core, at that point I think it turned into hysteria. Suggestion is powerful and the human mind is definitively irrational.
I'll be glad to change my mind if anyone comes up with evidence that motivates it. Absent that I'm not going to assume an elaborate clandestine attack vs more banal explanations.
I believe in Havana they told us that it was their own equipment as that would make the most sense.
But you're right there are a lot of unknowns and wild reporting on it.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191003111753.h...
[1]https://www.nbcnews.com/science/cosmic-log/reality-check-rus...
[2]https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-diplo...
EDIT modified said to be real.
Curious where it was shown. A search didn’t turn up anything convincing.
Enough proof to believe though, right?
Now you've both been disingenuous.
Here's the report!
It's a lot cheaper to blame 'adversaries' than to admit liability and be on the hook for millions (billions?) in Workers' Compensation claims..
As well as Washington DC, Australia, China, Austria and possibly other places I'm not aware of. Occam's Razor.
</totes-serious>
I can believe some were injured by one of the methods discussed. But I can also believe many noticed they could also claim to have been affected too.
People have been hurt by the lockdown mentally. Lost friends and so much more.
Mass psychogenic illness (mass hysteria is the old name) is a legitimate disease.
But if you don't address it head on, you help no one.
Additionally, it's reported by American diplomats in Vienna now as well[2].
[1]: https://globalnews.ca/news/7809823/havana-syndrome-canadian-... [2]: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-unexplained-health-incident...
Perhaps we should be calling it "Washington Syndrome".
I'll take the whole salt shaker.
>Allow me to be clear: if you take to the sea, you will not come to the United States
At a minimum they don't want the refugees from Cuba. It seems quite clear they won't relax the immigration rules for Cubans.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-homeland-security-secretary-...
Any press release is a form of PR, and the CIA is no different. Government officials release press statements all the time in order to sway public opinion on a specific issue.
In recent history, the buildup to the Iraq War is a perfect example, in the way that demonstrably false statements to the media and deliberate misdirection were used to gin up public support for the war. There are several great documentaries, books, and podcasts that go over it in great detail. I highly recommend looking into that period of time as an example of what I mean by "sway."
My point is that your statement above is made incorrect by actual policy.
> was largely reversed by Trump
Again you are incorrect. Trump actually made very little changes.
It still represents a reversal towards a more aggressive stance.
Also, this is worth pointing out: https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1094612
EDIT: I'm still not sure what you mean by "incorrect when it comes to actual policy," in case that wasn't clear. The policy of the U.S. has been to prevent Cuba from engaging in international trade as a sovereign nation for decades. That is still the case. Even during the pandemic, Cuba was not allowed to receive vaccine supplies from the international community, and had to develop their own. What is that if not an act of aggression?
What Trump says and does are two different things. Follow the policy. He never actually reversed it.
> EDIT: I'm still not sure what you mean by "incorrect when it comes to actual policy," in case that wasn't clear. The policy of the U.S. has been to prevent Cuba from engaging in international trade as a sovereign nation for decades. That is still the case.
There cannot be a campaign to sway public opinion for US intervention when there has been a policy in effect for the warming of relations for the last 7 years. It's a contradiction in policy.
That is simply not true. I don't know how you can see the current situation as "warming" just because a few select economic interests have access to the island now - the vast, vast majority of trade and economic activity is still blocked by the United States. I'll repeat again that pandemic aid of all things isn't even allowed in.
Also, it is absolutely the case that different areas of the U.S. government can have seemingly different attitudes and policies towards certain issues. The government is not a monolith, and the intelligence apparatus especially is almost completely unaccountable to any outside interests, including Congress and the judiciary. Your assumption that that "oh well Obama let cruise ships go there again, so the CIA must have completely given up their decades-long goal of overthrowing the Cuban government" is way off.
EDIT: and before you say something like "the CIA is beholden to the executive branch, so they must be in sync" I'll just repeat again that your view of the policy as "warming" is a big stretch. TL;DR: Obama's slight relaxation of the embargo doesn't mean that the intelligence services don't still want to destabilize the Cuban government and pursue U.S. intervention, and if that is the case, press releases to gin up anti-Cuban sentiment would be part of that playbook. Those are absolutely still compatible. I rest my case.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Havana_syndrome
Look, I don't agree with US policy towards Cuba but arguing that the whole thing is a PR campaign isn't very persuasive either. It might be a case of psychological contagion among a relatively small and insular community (ie the diplomatic corps) or it might have some factual basis. There's some evidence (detailed elsewhere in this thread) to suggest the latter.
Skepticism is good, but I think your argument here is mere contrarianism.
I'm not denying that this could all be true. Even if it's true, the timing of this press release with everything else going on about Cuba in the news is a very obvious strategic play. This is old news, why release a new statement about it right now of all times?
Any intelligence service worth their salt (I can't get away from the salt theme today) would obviously use media statements as part of their strategy. It stands to reason that anything the CIA says or does in the public sphere is well-planned and has intention behind it that we can only guess at.
In the mid 2000s the Canadian Mint was briefly stamping poppies into their coins and putting a red enamel on them to commemorate remembrance day.
A CIA employee found one in his pocket coming back from Canada and claimed the Canadian government was planting listening devices on a coin to record him.
Why would anyone trust someone who worked for or works for the CIA exactly? Their job is to lie to people and be good at it.
Since the incidents, involving up to 130 U.S. personnel, have happened in Cuba, China, Russia, and elsewhere (including at least one possible incident inside the U.S.) it would have to be someone with the resources to carry out such attacks across the world (and the CIA director said as much if you listen to the interview). The most likely culprit being eyed by Pentagon officials is Russia (as previously reported[1]), but the CIA director chose not to name names during this latest interview even when directly asked if it was Russia.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/us/politics/biden-cia-bra...
See: many (but certainly not all) long covid reports.
Articles by the NYT initially put the microwave hypothesis hand in hand with strained US-Cuba relations!
Of course now it’s being revealed that people in other countries are having it so it’s hard. But they’re actively implying this is some microwave super weapon (it feels so absurd that when talking about it even Obama alum Ben Rhodes basically talks about it as “allegedly some weapon thing” in a “don’t believe that” theory).
I’m curious what is going on here too, but definitely don’t believe the weapon hypothesis compared to the much more banal explanations that we all know.
It's 2021.
> definitely don’t believe the weapon hypothesis compared to the much more banal explanations that we all know.
Although nobody knows what is behind the phenomenon, you must admit that it's strange that it seems to only occur to American staff at those locations. It may not be a weapon, but it does seem to target American facilities. For all we know it could be a malfunctioning American system inside those locations.
There might've been speculation that Cuba allowed it or supported a foreign operation, but "from Cuba" doesn't mean "by Cuba".
Not trying to disclaim you, but this part of reasoning seems rather weird. Even China has more global influence than Russia? Or even UK, France, German.
If you think this attack by "enemy", why not just kill someone? I mean, given the length of what's happening, it must be that there is no way to obtain concrete evidences.
Russia would know for sure that US would accuse Russia anyway, even without any concrete evidences; which has been the behavior pattern of US for quite a long time.
Turns out that, if we follow logic, then we can fairly sure that this is indeed a unsolved case. And more investigation is needed. And that's what CIA chief is doing, and I think CIA chief is doing something right.
I think many more countries could do this around the world... I'm not sure about Cuba, but maybe even yes.
Do you think the CIA thinks the majority of people read the full article?
Do you think the CIA engages honestly with the press to simply provide information to the public?
GP's analysis is correct: the CIA knows that people will read vaguely and shallowly and take away a confused anti-cuban sentiment, and this is their intended outcome. "Heavily suggested" doesn't mean "actually, if you read the full article, they didn't say that", it means they're heavily trying to suggest this.
If the CIA's goal were to foment anti-Cuban sentiment in relation to Havana Syndrome, why would they have the press write articles which don't blame Cuba, and depend on the public not actually reading those articles but still making the connection by vague association... rather than simply blaming Cuba, so the articles would blame Cuba, and even people who read the articles would make that association directly?
You're reaching. This isn't part of some subtle CIA propaganda double fake, it's just the result of Hacker News preferring to depend on commenters to provide context for articles they don't read.
Every article I read has suggested Russia may be likely, but only as an early suggestion, and they only used "Havana" because that's where the initial incident took place.
This is why reading articles is important.
Much like the people who can't get over the simple "UK strain" or "South Korean variant" of COVID merely because it was initially identified in those countries.
Once a malicious variant has been found, we should stop using it.
It is not distracting to call a variant "Delta" instead of a country. If anything, it removes distractions.
So Trump started saying "China virus" out of spite. Trump supporters followed suit.
https://www.who.int/news/item/08-05-2015-who-issues-best-pra...
No valuable time is wasted plucking letters out of the Greek alphabet. The names are easy to remember. As long as they are applied consistently, who cares?
Better than country names, though.
It's really easy and natural to do that, since the name evolves straight out of the conversation. Especially when it's something new, unknown, and no one really understands what's going on.
> No valuable time is wasted plucking letters out of the Greek alphabet. The names are easy to remember. As long as they are applied consistently, who cares?
That's an artificial naming convention that had to be designed. And it might not be as practical as you assume it is. IIRC, NOAA recently abandoned a similar Greek-letter naming convention.
Some valuable time is also wasted with people needing to answer "WTF is that?" when all the sudden sources start talk about stuff like the "Beta variant," or people having to explicitly explain connections that would have been clear with a geographic name. As someone who has been following the news, the headline "India variant 2x more transmissible than UK variant," would have let me skip reading the article, since it told me everything new I needed to know (e.g. India outbreak caused by new more transmissible variant).
You realize part of the issue with the "China Flu" label was conservatives beating the shit out of Asians?
You realize that there are no reports of US citizens beating the shit out of Cubans because of Havana syndrome? And that a niche affliction in the foreign service is different than a pandemic killing 600,000 domestically?
> you're going to assert that the CIA, despite explicitly saying they don't know where exactly it comes from
The CIA has a long and well-documented history of lying to the public. I'm not asserting that I know what's going on, I'm asserting that the CIA has previously used interviews and media statements to influence public opinion about countries the U.S. is seeking to destabilize. Colin Powell is the most famous and egregious example in recent history. This is obviously not as overt as what Powell did, but every statement the CIA makes to the media should be viewed in that context.
The incident is also very old (2016) and happened in multiple locations worldwide.
So we're back to naming based on geography again?
Name one good thing that having a "relationship" with the Cuban government would do?
It would be about as fruitful as cozying up to NK. It's a waste of time negotiating with fascists who have no plan on changing their ways.
> The director says he is seriously considering the "very strong possibility" that the syndrome is the result of intentional actions, adding that there are a limited number of "potential suspects" with the capability to carry out an action so widely across the globe.
Except, IIRC:
1. they didn't take the reports seriously at first,
2. they ruled out the Cubans fairly quickly, and
3. that may have been a goal of Trump, but he's not president anymore.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2738552
https://www.pennmedicine.org/news/news-releases/2019/july/ad...
this is not just a mass hysteria/placebo/negative-placebo effect.
"Among patients compared with controls, there were significantly greater ventral diencephalon and cerebellar gray matter volumes and significantly smaller frontal, occipital, and parietal lobe white matter volumes; significantly lower mean diffusivity in the inferior vermis of the cerebellum (patients: 7.71 × 10−4 mm2/s; controls: 8.98 × 10−4 mm2/s; difference, −1.27 × 10−4 [95% CI, −1.93 × 10−4 to −6.17 × 10−5] mm2/s; P < .001); and significantly lower mean functional connectivity in the auditory subnetwork (patients: 0.45; controls: 0.61; difference, −0.16 [95% CI, −0.26 to −0.05]; P = .003) and visuospatial subnetwork (patients: 0.30; controls: 0.40; difference, −0.10 [95% CI, −0.16 to −0.04]; P = .002) but not in the executive control subnetwork (patients: 0.24; controls: 0.25; difference: −0.016 [95% CI, −0.04 to 0.01]; P = .23).
If there's really a there there and they solve the "who, what, why", then I'm happy to eat crow. But I don't think they will because I don't think there is.
Huh? I think you're misunderstanding the situation here and misapplying a heuristic. That sample size of 40 people may be the universe of cases (at the time) or a significant fraction of it, and I don't know what could be "weirdly specific" about "48 demographically similar healthy controls."
40 is a significant fraction of 200, but it's still a small number. You subject 40 people to a whole battery of imaging and examination, and I'm sure you'll find something odd in at least one of the tests. "Intensive and repeated investigation of a small population yields artifacts, and there is no plot" seems the stronger case to me.
If there is a plot, then I'm sure the CIA can solve it. That's what they do, and they have all the resources in the world to do it. If they don't solve it, then I think we should accept that there was no plot and that mass hysteria is the best explanation. Similarly if they do solve it, then we have to accept that.
Several years in, the explanations are shifting and vague, which is the hallmark of mirage.
>The clinical importance of these differences is uncertain and may require further study
Not to mention the lengthy list of limitations the study itself mentions.
Basically they examined two groups and listed the differences between them
They just cant figure out exactly what caused it. I think a recent study pointed towards pesticides, but the evidence was pretty lacking.
I really doubt that 'mass hysteria' is causing people to get brain damage that shows up on MRI scans.
They are intentionally ignoring the possibility. The major report released by the government claiming microwave attacks was the most likely stated that a psychogenic cause fit all available evidence but they lacked the psychiatric evaluations to call it the cause.
And you are convinced hundreds of people are making this up?
Watts to sieverts: https://www.unitconverters.net/radiation/watt-kilogram-to-si...
For example, a single one sievert (1,000 mSv) dose causes radiation sickness such as nausea, vomiting, hemorrhaging, but not death. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-quake-radiation-idU...