SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket will launch NASA's Europa Clipper to icy Jupiter moon
space.com
space.com
We aren’t because the Saturn V moon rocket (and related projects) were consuming over 4% of the US government’s budget, way more than even the SLS and definitely more than the Falcon Heavy.
Saturn V's lift to LEO was 120-140 tonnes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_V) while SpaceX claims Starship's is "over" 100 tonnes (https://www.spacex.com/media/starship_users_guide_v1.pdf).
On the other hand, obviously, payloads are planned for the rocket they are going to be lifted by, so most likely somebody will set constraints on their project to either have smaller payload or split it into parts.
I doubt that will happen though. It's far more likely in-orbit assembly and orbital refueling will progress dramatically as launch costs drop, and anyone with such a payload would find a way to design it for such assembly.
On the other hand, Starship didn't fly to orbit yet. We'll see better how it goes when it does. And we can't fly Saturn V now anyway. And Starship - even if supposedly with lower payload - promises to be much cheaper. And...
A massive amount of redesign was required to build the shuttle derived SLS, deriving from Saturn would have been worse.
But the real reason was that deriving from Shuttle kept those employees employed. SLS has never been a rocket program, it's always been a pork program.
SpaceX's Starship has twice the thrust of Saturn, so could be tweaked to send more payload by sacrificing reusability. But they have an even better plan -- refueling allows massive payloads.
Saturn's materials and computer technology are more than 50 years old. Not only would we have to want to recreate this historic technology, we would have to recreate the knowledge, skills and competencies of the experienced craftsmen that used it, across the massive supply chain, as well as the tooling required.
That's equal to $42 billion today per the BLS. NASA's fiscal 2021 budget is $23.2 billion. So while you're correct that Federal spending has increased as a share of the economy (declining NASA's share of spending even faster), NASA's funding is realistically down by at least half now vs then when you adjust for inflation.
That BLS figure is also the questionable official conservative take. Gold was $35 / ounce back then, it's around $1,800 now (51 fold increase). The average new car was near $3,000 in the mid 1960s, it's now $41,000. Oil was $3 / barrel in the mid 1960s, it's in the $70s now.
[1] https://history.nasa.gov/SP-4012/vol4/ch1.htm
- NASA's spending fell to $3 billion by 1974. Inflation adjusted that would be $17.5 billion today, so at least they're ahead of that.
Cherry-picking a peak date is a bit dubious though. If you average over the duration of the Apollo program, you get a number much closer to today.
So most, maybe even all of the difference in budgetary size is due to increase in size of the rest of the federal budget.
The entire thing would have to be re-designed from scratch with modern manufacturing process in mind.
And for things like F1 engine the available manufacturing methods have a lot of influence on the design, so the result will be basically a different engine than F1.
One had to due with adding strings to some foam mixture to get it to set correctly. Not documented anywhere. When cheap labor was brought in they couldn’t reproduce the work. So old people had to be hired back at a lot more
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocketdyne_F-1#F-1B_booster
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50339.0
Obviously it is not exactly the same as the F-1, it is rebuilt using modern parts and manufacturing techniques. But the F-1B aimed to have at least as good performance as the F-1. It appears the proposal was not successful in convincing NASA to adopt it for an SLS liquid rocket booster, and NASA is currently planning on sticking with solids even into SLS Block 2. (And Block 2 SLS is probably never going to fly.) But Rocketdyne owns the IP to F1B and could resurrect it again in the future if there was a demand for such an engine. They were working on it within the last 10 years so unlikely that much knowledge has been lost.
This serves as a counterexample to the often repeated claim that we can't rebuild the F-1 because we've forgotten how. Rocketdyne and NASA had enough institutional knowledge to design a modern successor.
I’m basing that on https://arstechnica.com/science/2013/04/how-nasa-brought-the..., which tells me we now know quite well how these engines (or rather: the particular one they looked at) were constructed. I also get the impression we could create those parts using other means such as 3D printing.
Machines like that are designed with the manufacturing process in mind.
An engine designed to be manufactured with today's manufacturing processes will look different than an engine designed to be manufactured manually by ultra-skilled metalworkers and welders.
TLDR: everything was handcrafted, notes were not made or lost, people have retired or passed away and today's engineers don't know the tricks that the original engineers used. Effectively, existing blueprints are not enough to rebuild the engine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_heavy-lift_launch_vehicl...
Saturn V: 310,000 lb
SLS: 209,000 lb planned
Falcon Heavy: 126,000-141,000 lb
Starship: 220,000–330,000 lb planned(1998) https://www.semiconductoronline.com/doc/euv-llc-enters-devel...
If eighteen months from now Starship has launched a ~dozen or more times and SLS once, I'd imagine they might wrap up SLS with Artemis 2, which should be mostly complete by then. At a total program cost of ~$24 billion for 2 flights it would be quite ... something, but it's hard to see them continuing much beyond that. They'd just figure out a way to use Crew Dragon/Starliner to get to Starship for lunar missions (assuming they're not going to want to launch/land humans on Earth on Starship for a while).
I don’t say this as a slight to SpaceX… on the contrary the risk is what makes them so exciting!
At this point, I imagine most every investor in Earth would be tripping over their own legs to buy SpaceX stock if they could. If they ever run low, their ability to raise more money is as sure a thing as anything in this world these days. Additionally, Starlink is going to be an absolute revenue monster very soon, even if Starship for some reason ends up taking another decade to get working.
The only way Starship fails is if SpaceX goes broke. SpaceX is not going to go broke. Therefore, Starship will eventually work, after some variable and as yet indeterminate number of prototype failures.
Starship needs to be crew-rated by NASA before it can replace SLS+Orion. I'm sure that will happen at some point, but that point may well be after Artemis 3 has happened.
Some people propose hybrid architectures – putting Orion+ESM inside Starship, and using F9+Dragon to ferry the crew to LEO. However, I think NASA will view those hybrid architectures as even more complex, and hence riskier, than the current SLS+Orion(+Gateway)+StarshipHLS architecture. Plus, pro-SLS forces in Congress will oppose NASA doing that. Bridenstine proposed launching Orion on Falcon Heavy, and Senator Shelby's response was to ask Bridenstine for his resignation. Shelby may be gone from Congress but there are other members of Congress with the same attitude. It is harder for Congress to oppose a NASA project to crew-rate Starship because it would be less obviously directly competitive with SLS+Orion, even if the death of SLS+Orion would be its ultimate consequence.
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Liftoff-Desperate-Early-Launched-Spac...
People love to hate Musk, but without SpaceX and private space companies in general, we could forget about any significant progress in space activities. The price tag would be suffocating.
It is also an interesting example of "throwing money at a problem does not always buy you a better solution". People too often come to conclusion that if some system is defective (e.g. schooling), more money would automatically help. Not necessarily.
Here's an example: The SLS/Space Shuttle RS-25 engines are $125mm a piece when they could buy RD-180 engines for $25m a piece. There are 4 engines on SLS and they are expendable.
I am still positively surprised that they opened up some of the processes to competition.
I thought this was no longer the case, as NASA had determined that Falcon Heavy was not going to have to travel to Venus to get a gravity boost from it first, and could go directly to Europa like SLS.
I understand there are huge technical challenges, vast distances but sometimes it feels like things are moving very slowly. On the other hand I watch SpaceX cycle through revisions on a crazy fast timeline and I have hope that we will have some breakthroughs in spacefaring technology sooner than expected.
But if the probe blew up that would really suck
"Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."
Never going to be a weekend hop, but there are definitely technical advances that make it a 3 month trip rather than a 3 year trip.
Keep in mind that Artemis 3 [0] is scheduled to launch in september 2024 and the mission includes a moon landing with the planned Starship human landing system (HLS) [1]. Mr Maezawa's flight around Moon is also scheduled for the early 2020ies (no earlier than ("NET") 2023), so Starship is meant to be reliable enough for crewed missions then.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3#Mission
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#Starship_Human...
Still, Starship has a long way to go.
Would we not learn a lot more by landing on these moons?
My understanding about planetary protection is that you don't want to contaminate the new environment, because then you can't say for certain (that easily) if the life you are detecting is native to the environment or the contamination.
I also understand that the native population of the Americas suffered badly from the diseases carried in by the europeans. But those diseases landed in an environment much like the one they evolved in. The humans were humans, the atmosphere were the same, the temperature were the same, etc.
If the space-probe gets contaminated with some earthly bacteria, virus or prion they not only have to survive the travel there, but then they have to quickly adapt to the new environment. Different temperature, different chemical composition, different life forms. How often does it happen that you sneeze at a fungi and the fungi gets infected with your cold? Doing one of these adaptation alone is a big ask, doing all of them at once would be a huge leap.
Imagine that you move to a new place. You move there in a salted barrel, not designed for human occupancy. The locals speak a different language, have different customs, you can't get food you are used to and the climate is way out of your comfort zone. Would you be outcompeting the locals quick? I don't think so.
I wouldn't worry about wiping out a whole ecosystem unless the ecosystem is much much more similar to our own's.
But of course being cautious is always a good idea. Furthermore I already think we should avoid contamination. If for no other reasons than to avoid arguments about what the detected life really means.
Who knows, maybe the life started on Earth as contamination from foreign objects from space.
To convert from a flyby to landing, you need to burn a lot of fuel, to slow down. To get that fuel to the destination, you need to bring it with you. Which means a much higher take off mass, which needs an even bigger rocket.
Mars has a very light atmosphere, which lets us aerobrake- slow down by hitting the atmosphere, that way you don't need any extra fuel. Europa's atmosphere is basically non-existent.
Probably, but it's also a lot harder. Not only does it require more delta-V, you now need to design, build and test a lander in addition to a spacecraft, and you need to build everything to be able to operate in Jupiter's harsh radiation environment (Europa Clipper will only do fly-bys of Europa and spend most of its orbit further away from the high radiation environment).
Dragonfly is a nuclear powered octo-copter, that will fly autonomously on the moon. Titan's small gravitational field and dense atmosphere (about 1.45x Earth's atmospheric pressure) make it one of the best places in the Solar System for flight. The general flight plan is to charge up batteries with the MMRTG (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-mission_radioisotope_the...), take off, scout a new potential landing area, land in a previously scouted landing area. On one battery charge, it will be able to fly up to 10km, and stay aloft for up to 30 minutes. Dragonfly will carry out scientific sampling both on the ground and in the air.
To quote Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(spacecraft)) about why Titan is an interesting spot for science:
> Titan is similar to the very early Earth, and can provide clues to how life may have arisen on Earth. In 2005, the European Space Agency's Huygens lander acquired some atmospheric and surface measurements on Titan, detecting tholins,[29] which are a mix of various types of hydrocarbons (organic compounds) in the atmosphere and on the surface.[30][31] Because Titan's atmosphere obscures the surface at many wavelengths, the specific compositions of solid hydrocarbon materials on Titan's surface remain essentially unknown.[32] Measuring the compositions of materials in different geologic settings will reveal how far prebiotic chemistry has progressed in environments that provide known key ingredients for life, such as pyrimidines (bases used to encode information in DNA) and amino acids, the building blocks of proteins.[33]
> Areas of particular interest are sites where extraterrestrial liquid water in impact melt or potential cryovolcanic flows may have interacted with the abundant organic compounds. Dragonfly will provide the capability to explore diverse locations to characterize the habitability of Titan's environment, investigate how far prebiotic chemistry has progressed, and search for biosignatures indicative of life based on water as solvent and even hypothetical types of biochemistry.[6]
> The atmosphere contains plentiful nitrogen and methane, and strong evidence indicates that liquid methane exists on the surface. Evidence also indicates the presence of liquid water and ammonia under the surface, which may be delivered to the surface by cryovolcanic activity.
Why didn't they just use that?
What a waste of money.
https://spacecenter.org/exhibits-and-experiences/nasa-tram-t...
This mission is a total financial loss until proved otherwise.
As of today the only people who managed to make money in space are the brokers and lawyers who negotiated private tourism trips to the ISS in the 90s and again this new wave of space tourism.
There's an irrational exhuberance about space in my opinion
The progress which matters always happens in some guy's brain. Imaginary journeys, not real ones.
Einstein didn't need to travel around massive objects to come up with relativity.
The cost of that theory was basically the rent, food and water for him.
Sending another mission to Jupiter though will likely result in serious returns on investments, even if they are non-obvious at this point.
And no, hope and hype about Europa being able to sustain life is not quality of life. It's a sugar high you get when you read the news or see the anchor losing it on tv.
Edit: Also, I think the problem is not of we having 'less' quality of life (although it can still be improved), it is more of how can we distribute that better quality of life to everyone.
Because quality of life gets everybody on board. This sort of expeditions are paid for with the money of people who don't agree with the spending.
These people are generally talked some sense into when they disagree with military spending, or infrastructure spending or entitlements spending. The theme is always "even if you don't benefit from it yourself, people around you do and so over time will you!"
A leftist version of trickle down, I call it trickle up or trickle laterally. I can see the point in having a discussion.
The talk doesn't even happen with space, it seems like if you are for containing space spending you hate America or something
(The biggest difference to explain that, I would say, is that a scientific/engineering advancement can deliver value magnitudes greater than development cost, but trickle down at best transfers some of the money. And that's what most of the budget is going into on a project like this, not basic equipment assembly or the proportionally tiny fuel cost.)
Nothing fungible will come out of this Jupiter mission and you know it.
If this was education budget or brain research I'd totally be onboard with it.