Ask HN: Pandemic Predictions and Surprises a Year On

What predictions did you make at the start of the pandemic that became true? Or appear on track to happen? Which of your predictions were wrong?

Also, what surprises didn't you expect that happened in your country or globally as a result of the pandemic?

Prediction: I thought that people might re-evaluate travelling by air as a result of the pandemic. Not only because of the spread of the virus at lightning speed, but that it might make us pause to consider the consequences of flying and climate change.

I was wrong.

After more than a year of lockdown for many countries, people are itching to fly again. The pent-up urge to resume flights seems overwhelming (climate be damned!). I think demand will be particularly strong in Western Europe which has been spoilt for years by cheap flights that often cost less than a train ticket.

Prediction: More car travel in order to avoid crowded buses or trains. I'm not sure if this has happened or not. So, I'll mark this predication as 'outcome unknown'.

Unpleasant surprise: Housing bubble - this is UK-specific. With so much uncertainty over the economy I expected a cautious, subdued housing market. Instead the opposite has happened. A temporary housing tax exemption ('stamp duty') from the government has sent house prices skyrocketing. There may also be pressure on housing from people looking to moving to new areas as a result of more remote work. As always, more demand than supply means housing prices just continue to rise.

So, what were your pandemic predictions and surprises?