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11thEarlOfMar

I've got 85,000/136,000 miles/km on my 2018 Model 3, Long Range.

Initial range: 315/500 m/km

Updated Range: 325/520 m/km

Current Range*: 302/483 m/km

*(maximum charge I see when recharging over night)

Using the 325 as a starting point, that's 7% decrease in range after 85k/136k m/km.

Using 30% decrease as the point where you'd upgrade the battery, and prorating from 7%, you'd drive 360,000/577,000 m/km before needing to replace it.

At 18,000/29,000 m/km average annual driving distance, you'd drive 20 years before needing to replace the battery.

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This is assuming that the deterioration rate is linear, I have no idea if that is true. But if these numbers are accurate the longevity is better than expected. Scrapping these batteries in volume is another challenge.

I imagine in 10 years today's battery tech will be obsolete. I am still on the fence about getting into an EV, it still appears to be an early adopter technology.

It appears to not be linear, based on the data entered by the Dutch Tesla Motors Club, see the chart near the bottom:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey...

> I imagine in 10 years today's battery tech will be obsolete.

What's your basis for this? Battery tech has largely been incrementalist for the past decade, are there specific breakthroughs you're watching?

Solid state batteries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery

Thanks for posting the information. Very interesting.

I am not a Tesla owner so sorry if this is a stupid question: Are the values you posted the ones listed from the car dashboard ? How do those compare with the effective/real range ?

The display shows the current drivable distance based on the energy remaining in the battery.

The amount displayed represents an average based on driving style, changes in elevation, windspeed, ambient temperature. For example, if the drivable distance indicates 200 miles, and I drive that distance on a level road at 65 mph in still air at 70 degrees F, I can go 200 miles.

If I drive it at 85 mph, I'd get about 160 miles.

If I drive it at 55 mph, I'd expect 210-220.

Up hill into the mountains has a significant decrease, and driving downhill can actually restore energy, depending on the rate of decline and driving speed, thanks to the regenerative braking.

I do think the calculation could be more accurate if neural nets were used to learn a specific driver's style, combined with driving destination in the navigation system, ambient temperature, air conditioning drain, etc.

Weather forecast becoming really important part for modern society.

Not the poster, but in my Model Y the ratio of actual miles driven to miles of range decrease shown on the screen is about 0.8 on long trips. So I typically assume my actual range will be 80% of what the car thinks when I start a trip. This probably has more to do with my driving style and air conditioner use than anything else.

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