Here is a simple rule of thumb. Exit polling is an independent confirmation of the fairness of elections. Exit polling has been proven accurate in every advanced democracy except one. Agreement between exit polling and the official vote tally is widely regarded as a litmus test for fair elections in third world countries. It should be so regarded in the one advanced democracy where there are regularly large deviations between exit polls and reported results.
That outlier is, of course, the USA. :-(