The world is not near the end of the pandemic – epidemiologist Larry Brilliant | Hacker News Reader

The world is not near the end of the pandemic – epidemiologist Larry Brilliant

cnbc.com

17 pointsthunderbong10 comments

The epidemiologist said there is a low probability that a “super variant” may emerge and vaccines don’t work against it. While it’s hard to predict these things, he added, it’s a non-zero probability, which means it cannot be ruled out.

Having been interviewed, and then later seeing the interview in print, on a couple of occasions, I always wonder how conversations like the quote really happened. Here's how I hear it in my head:

Dr. Brilliant: "...and while there could be a 'super variant', there is an extremely low probability of that happening, so while..."

Interviewer: "So what you're saying is that it could happen?"

Dr. Brilliant: "well, yes, there's a non-zero possibility, but that doesn't mean..."

Print article: "Dr. sez possibility of super-killer-hide-yer-daughters-variant has 'non-zero probability' and we should all be very scared!"

Vaccinating whole world takes so much time that it begs the question what is the game plan for countries with zero covid policy? Keep the borders locked forever so the dirty immigrants won't bring them sickness?

We’re not in a pandemic anymore.

The numbers are public. At some point, we have to treat this like other diseases we live with and go back to normal life.

The definition of a pandemic has nothing to do with how public officials respond to the disease, it’s about the level of spread.

We can both be in a pandemic and also not do anything about it if that’s what you want.

People want clearer metrics for when to return to (almost) normal life. Most agree we shouldn't go on like this forever. Humans are social beings who don't like being cooped up and mumbling behind masks. The best metric is hospital usage. If Covid patient levels drop below a threshold, then mandates should be relaxed. A tiered system can also be used so that stronger mandates kick in at different levels

What other disease that we currently live with is filling up hospitals and ICU beds to maximum capacity?

This article does not cite any primary sources and does not present any new information that hasn't already been discussed here multiple times.

The big takeaway from Larry is:

a) elderly people with one or more comorbidities are a vulnerable population and will benefit the most from vaccination and additional booster shots

b) vaccine doses should be moved to developing countries with vulnerable populations that lack access to modern healthcare facilities

- "Brilliant said one group of people needs a booster shot “right away” — those who are 65 years and above, and were fully vaccinated more than six months ago but have a weakened immune system."

- "So those people, I would say, should be given a third dose, a booster right away — as quickly as moving the vaccines to those countries that haven’t had a very high chance to buy them or have access to them. I consider those two things about equal"

Whether we're near the end of the pandemic or not is just semantics and drawing a line in the sand right now is useless.

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