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Comment by dabinat | Hacker News Reader

The speed at which the Taliban were able to retake the country shows just how little the US achieved in 20 years.

Why was the US there for 20 years?

I suspect that the main objective could have been achieved quickly and we might be back to exactly that point (Taliban in power but with the understanding that they should not cross red lines).

But if the objective was to somehow change the country and make it more 'Westernized' then then that was rather arrogant and that did not end better than in Iran...

Iran was quite different. It had a modern society and political system before intervention after which religious fundamentalists took over.

No conflict was about bringing western values to anyone...

Most of Iranian society was conservative and not comfortable with Western influence. The government was a puppet of the West.

That's a familiar pattern.

It also wasn't primarily the US, they were just onboard with it. But these interventions are never to transport values, that is ridiculously naive. It should be extremely clear in the case of Iran since it was its democracy that was undermined in favor of a more western aligned dictatorship which was then replaced by a religious theocracy because people were spiteful enough to just get western influence out of their country. Not a good solution, but completely understandable.

They were being beaten back for at least the last three years that I was following it. They didn't just leave voluntarily, they were defeated and left early to save face. Check a timelapse map of the Taliban's territorial gains and consider that recapture of the entire country took them only two weeks.

The US has rarely won any aggresion or proxy war in this and the past century.

2021 - 100 = 1921

The US wasn't on the victorious side in World War I or World War II?

> aggresion or proxy war

It can be said that US got Okinawa(Ryukyu) on WW2. It finally returned (I believe returning isn't planned initially), but still has big bases.

I’m not sure how that changes the question of whether the US joined WW2 as an aggressor or defender.

World War I ended in 1918. The Soviets did most of the work winning World War II [1].

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Front_(World_War_II)

Sometimes I think winning is secondary, and the main objective is to keep the war machine going. A prolonged period of peace (mutual or by sheer intimidation) would be disastrous for the sector.

Keeping in mind it is an afghan defeat even more than a US defeat. I kind of agree with Biden when he says "One more year, or five more years, of U.S. military presence would not have made a difference if the Afghan military cannot or will not hold its own country"

This is not how most of the world or Americans are going to see it. Speaking as an independent, this is precisely the kind of abject failure and mess that will be the reason for a single term presidency as well as a likely change in party next term.

I don't know. Getting out of Afghanistan is kind of a bipartisan issue. I am conservative leaning and I side with Biden on this. In effect he executed the Trump plan and I don't think Trump would have done any better.

I think Biden is a one term president but not for exiting Afghanistan, unless it becomes again the host for the sponsors of a new major terrorist attack on the US. And it is not clear to me that this is something the Talibans are really contemplating.

I think people are surprised by the speed of the outcome, not by the outcome.

Withdrawal happening vs how withdrawal is happening are two very different things.

Trump's plan was to be out by Christmas, which generals delayed to May. This is not Biden executing Trump's plan.

That's details, it's not a few months earlier or later that would have made any difference. The point of the plan being prompt and full withdrawal within a year.

Timely withdrawl before the Taliban started shelling the capital absolutely would have made a difference.

But I'd settle for getting US citizens and diplomats (and afghans who've earned a visa) out before having our military cut and run in the middle of the night.

Honestly, I don't see what difference it would've made. The past week has shown that the ANA is either utterly incapable of or uninterested in defending Afghanistan against the Taliban. Whether we'd left by Christmas or stayed another two years, the outcome would've been the same.

It's not about the end result of the country, but a withdrawal being executed properly, getting civilians out before the diplomatic corps before the military. The reverse of what's happened.

And all before the summer gave the Taliban time and mobility (as in no snow) to start gaining ground.

> And all before the summer gave the Taliban time and mobility (as in no snow) to start gaining ground.

Yeah, I've read that the Taliban basically retreats during the winter, then returns for "fighting season." So it would have been much smarter to withdraw US troops during the winter. Withdraw them now ensured that the Taliban was in the best position possible to capitalize on it, which we are seeing now.

I don’t personably agree judging by sentiment I’m seeing, but hopefully you’re right. The average person doesn’t seem to think of this as executing trump’s plan and fwiw I personably think that’s a cop out to blame it on a previous administration if you ultimately make the choice now.

Speaking also as independent (and not a Biden supporter), this is one of the few statements Biden has made that I agree with. I find it incredibly refreshing to see that for once we didn't seek to delay inevitable disaster at the huge cost of blood and treasure for political expediency.

Not even close.

The average Biden voter isn't losing sleep over having less presence in Afghanistan and knows that the mess was in place long before he stepped foot in the office.

There's not a single Biden voter that cares that Biden is incompetent and creating messes for the US (border crises, inflation, gas shortages, etc). What they care about is no more Trump mean tweets.

I disagree on that.

USA accused Taliban of sheltering Bin Laden, and invaded afghanistan because Taliban was the government.

Now USA is leaving, and Taliban is again the government... to me this feels more like USA invaded, occupied for 20 years with the help of a puppet government, and now Afghanistan as it was before the invasion, won.

This isn't just a insurgency winning or terrorism, USA litearlly invaded a country, tried to conquer it, and failed, it is a country vs country war and USA lost.

Depends on how you value 20 years with the Talibans in retreat.

Both of these things can be true. The USA has lost, and at the same time five more years wouldn't have made a difference.

The brutal carpet bombing and the countless collateral civilians killed didn't help USA win the locals' appreciation.

At the time of the bombings, it was reported that they were overdone because it was old stock, as if disposing of it instead of strategically bombing Taliban bases. Some lucky contractors likely were very happy to replenish that stock.

War on Terror wakes up in shower

https://newsthump.com/2021/08/14/war-on-terror-wakes-up-in-s...

It's a white peace. USA don't risk an invasion and Taliban can't ask for reparations But future retalions in the form of terrorism are possible.

Except when it was a campaign issue, he said Trump's timeline for troops out before Christmas, which generals delayed to troops out by May, were both too fast.

Now it looks like being out before the summer fighting season started would have been the right call.

Thus is the power of hindsight

Hindsight would be proposing a different plan today and claiming it would have worked better.

Actually proposing a different plan ahead of time is a validated opinion/decision.

> Now it looks like being out before the summer fighting season started would have been the right call.

I didn't know there were seasons to fight. What impediment would winter/spring pose there?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan_fighting_season

Fighting? I haven't seen any fighting happening.

Or possibly how bad Biden and Gen Milley are at planning and military strategy.

> just how little the US achieved in 20 years.

Can’t help people who don’t want to help themselves.

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