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Orbits aren't stable.

If they were, worrying about "kessler syndrome" and "we cant pollute space!" would make more sense. But they're not. Stuff put in orbit will fall (or possible escape), and its a real job to find an orbit where that doesn't happen quickly.

Just like "COVID isn't smallpox".

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Sure, but when two objects collide and transform into 1000 objects, a lot more than two of them will find semi-stable orbits. And by semi-stable I mean it doesn't have to be stable as like with satellite, it just have to stay up there for years to be a problem.

You'd have to have a lot of energy to knock something from VLEO to GEO.

I don't see it being a possibility, but I could be wrong, maybe someone smarter than me can do the math...

Space is vast, if you have debris with a lifespan of 5 years, you won't accumulate enough for it to be unavoidable, and the issue will literally solve itself.

It is _impossible_ to "knock" something from LEO to GEO. You can kick it to raise the apogee to GEO altitude, but the perigee will still be LEO. To change between two circular orbits, you need at least two impulses.

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