HBO is about to lose 5M customers, and it isn’t concerned
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Not sure I agree with this since I can not recall a single instance where I have wanted to watch anything that has been suggested to me. All platforms have a limited amount of good stuff that I will happily search for and a huge amount of junk that I am simply not interested in.
Managing individual subscriptions is a real pain and I would prefer to find everything I need on one platform thanks.
> Customer intimacy. Modern tech companies collect, store, organize, and analyze years of user data. This data is virtual gold, as it enables companies to run targeted ads and personalize the customer experience. The key difference between a customer walking into a Walmart supercenter and Amazon's online store is that Amazon instantaneously reorganizes the whole store (layout, displays, product offerings, etc.) in a way that's tailormade for that customer.
https://archive.is/wK1bC (why wework is not a tech company, hbr.org, 2019)
https://archive.is/G7rSR (why zomato.com is a tech company, hbr.org, 2021)
Amazon is better than Walmart because you can search for and buy what you want when you want and have it show up the next day, and the prices are generally good enough.
Reviews are a nice touch, but those just need to be “good enough” to differentiate cheap chinese crap.
It’s not rocket science.
I often come to Amazon and search for something like "washers" and skim through the "recommended" items until I find a pack that's a good value. But from an attribution standpoint, that sale is more the result of "browsing the aisle" than a recommendation. It's not like they recommended hairspray, which i bought in addition to the thing I came there to buy.
As another example, I frequently find the "often purchased together" section to be very helpful. That might be the only recommendation system that I've ever used more than once.
I would say that's an example of recommendations working. However, in my personal experience, I rarely find "general" recommendations helpful.
Looking at the recommendations right now, they're not very good. Maybe I'm a hard sell? Sure, sidewalk chalk. You might run out of that and want more. Stuff to rekey your lock. I needed that when I bought my house a few years ago...I'm not sure why I would need that now. An air conditioner support bracket. I bought one last year much earlier in the summer.
I used to believe their pitch. However, it doesn't seem like it ended up working. People hear about a show and want to watch that specific show. The recommendations only do so much.
If anything they have taken recommendations and remade them in their own image/strategy/goals rather than our personalized watching behavior. Great examples continue to be Bridgerton, the Office which then had a meme-based resurgence, that one with Kevin Spacey, etc.
They care about retention, but they've realized that content >> discoverability for that.
People will find out about content. What they will not do is watch bad content, no matter how specifically and accurately it speaks to them.
What happened is consumers didn't agree. People wanted to watch the Office, not another feel-good comedy Netflix recommended. That forced Netflix to abandon their original strategy and spend a lot more on content.
So at what point on the MBA path does a person get forced into removing the logic part of the their brain?
MBA's seems to make decisions that are using an alien form that non-MBA's can not seem to understand, and perceive as illogical.....
If these two items are out of whack, an MBA will always favor profit and that too in incredibly creative, often marketing-based ways that rethink the business model. They will convince the user of what they need the user to believe to make the largest possible profit.
ICs often think of profit and user needs/desire but they usually hunt for a place where it overlaps and if it doesn't, they'll hunt again. Profit is demanded for value/convenience to the customer but it is often a 1:1 relationship.
They're also going to pocket Amazon's fee.
Does this tell you that:
• HBO is wrong
• You're not representative of either their user base or the user base they want
• You don't remember the times your browsing behavior was influenced by suggestions because you like believing you're not influenced by suggestions
The only way you could watch movies without it being the result of a suggestion would be if you had a random list of movies (preferably of all movies ever made) and picked at random in it. I think it's safe to assume you're not doing that, so you're being suggested movies.
the only way to really know that it wasn't some sort of algorithmic detection is if you 100% absolutely positively never browse and only watch a movie directly from the search feature.
They're tailoring their home page to increase the metrics they track and to make more money. They're not doing it altruistically to make me happier or to solve a problem I have.
HBO's goal is to make HBO more profitable. The user base they want, one which shares that goal, is nonexistent, there are only users who have a goal of being entertained and have varying levels of tolerance for HBO's antics to achieve that goal.
The user's goal is to be entertained. The way they make money is by getting you to continue your subscription. You will only continue that subscription is if you are entertained. So their goal is to entertain you enough to keep the subscription.
Sure they will produce new content and advertise it to you ahead of time such that you might keep the subscription for another month. But it only works if that content is interesting to you, so they still need to make content that is interesting.
I guess the content they are producing is aligned at groups of users, and not any one individual user. So if you are far from the targeted groups, then the goals are not as well aligned. But their goal is still to suggest the content in their library that you will be interested in to continue to stay subscribed.
Why? To capture new profiles from people who break into subscribers’ homes to surreptitiously watch HBO Max? How often does that happen relative to me wanting to watch, like always, as myself, like always?
If this is true, congrats. You are the .000001%. It works on people really well in the broad scope. It makes them gobs and gobs of money.
And the next time you need a product, you have a positive attachment to certain brands.
The only time i actually like ads and feel it "works on me" is when the product is a new area i have not previously seen before. Eg heated cups - i love my Ember. It sucks, but there's not much competition i'm aware of - so early ads were a dominated space. I eat those ads up if it's a product area i care about. (and i really love heated coffee lol)
(Years later I read that Allbirds is part of the SV tech worker uniform.)
Also I definitely have clicked on those marketing email newsletters and made purchases based on those. In case I sound like a major consumer, I will mention that I managed to live in New Jersey for 8 years spending $1200 a month. That's rent, food, transportation, and impulse buys.
Then, beyond that, you can get into the stuff that uses observations about basic human psychology. It might be arrogance to consider yourself above human weakness. You are probably familiar with the strategy of brand awareness? All else being equal you are more likely to purchase a product that is familiar to you. If you see an advertisement for a product, even if you try to form a negative emotional attachment immediately, the emotional tenor will fade but the familiarity will remain.
I'm not going to say every form of advertising is effective, probably a lot of the web stuff that can be gamed is gamed and thus less effective, but I'd be cautious assuming it won't work on you (or anyone else for that matter).
Heck, there a huge variance in quality of recommendation engines. YouTube is clearly superior to say, Amazon Video.
Most advertising/targeting doesn't work on most people most of the time, but we all have to endure it because it grabs just enough extra net revenue.
I suspect the vast majority of the users plonk down after work to look for a show. they are tired and they don't want to put a lot of effort into selecting the show or even paying attention to it. the suggestion will do. and the billion dollar provider staffed by high end experts has the analytics to back that up.
Meanwhile the noisy minority of users are seen complaining loudly about this or that feature not catering directly to them.
*I'm not trying to say you are that noisy minority btw, I only mean to evaluate the suggested premise of your comment.
For me, there's ads I actively enjoy watching. The old Cog[0] ad for the Honda Accord is one such case, as is the He-Man/Skeletor[1] ad for Money Supermarket (well, that and every other ad in that campaign). These work incredibly well on me as the brand awareness sort of marketing, and I'm sufficiently aware that I can correct for it — but I'm almost certainly unaware of my susceptibility to other sorts.
0. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ve4M4UsJQo
1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PgTjhx1VLwOutside of how evil this sounds, I've found that recommendation engines ultimately play against my own interests. It's possible that this ultimately my own fault based on what I watch. Realistically, I think there are multiple scenarios here:
- I watch some junk videos, and youtube suggests more videos like it.
- I enjoy junk videos by a single youtuber, and youtube expects that I want similar sorts of junk videos from many other youtubers. (when I do not)
- I enjoy junk videos of one narrow variety, but most people who enjoy those videos enjoy junk videos of a very wide variety. eg, I watch one retro games review channel, and so youtube thinks I want to watch whatever the most popular retro games review channel.
More perversely, I find that part of the feedback loop here is caused by the move from searching to browsing. That is, if I am shown a list of options (ie, if I am browsing) I tend to want to pick from the available options. The options are just based on what I've watched before, and so my tastes remain narrow over time. If I have to search for content, my mind wanders more, and I think more broadly about what content might be interesting to watch. This is nearly a creative process, and it broadens my horizons. Again, I think it would be perfectly fair to claim that this is really my fault, and not youtube's fault. But, it's very reminiscent of problems with junk food, or gambling, or any other vice. Just because the blame must lie with me does not mean that the company has created something good, which benefits people.
Having discovered this vice, I now do my best to avoid any product with a recommendation engine.
If you're going to insist on being a software developer as well as a content producer, fine, but make good software. Otherwise, let the experts who are actually good at it provide the distribution platform and HBO sticks to what HBO is good at, which is producing content.
HBO may never have been as big as Netflix and Amazon, but as long as they had a multi-decade history of producing way better content and continued to do so, even if it was less content, they were going to remain relevant. They didn't need to eat the world. Being small but good is fine. But selling out to AT&T means they need to try and eat the world so whoever pushed the acquisition can justify it and get a bigger bonus.
You see once a show (or a movie) advertised. It does not really register consciously with you (assuming you are used to this kind of advertisement, and largely ignore it). You might even see it a few times, but if someone asked which advertisements you saw, you may not recall it at all.
Now, a friend comes along and recommends you that same show / movie. You quite likely remember it, not consciously, but, eh, subconsciously(?). Your friend's comment is actually much more than a recommendation, it becomes reinforcement that you've encountered this show before, and it is likely popular and hence good (even if you consciously think popular things are not your thing).
Next time you come to the site, you might not be looking for your friend's recommendation, just something else. However, it might just so happen that this particular show is being advertised to you. Even if you were to click on it, you don't think the site was advertising it to you. Your friend did! It just happened to be there. Conveniently, you didn't even have to search for it.
Now, that single platform thing. I would love that, too. Better yet, if they would also be forced to keep historical movies and shows from 1900-2000 in their catalogue, kind of a public service. However, they would also own the incredibly powerful advertisement channel called "Shows you might like." Or your friend might like, but anyways.
And yet Netflix's content and suggestions today are absolute and complete garbage. I used to be a big believer, now I'm not sure why I'm still a customer.
I don’t find Netflix great, but the others still require tons of browsing too.
I find it fascinating the desire that our storefronts be the place where optimal suggestions are found. It's anachronistic, as if we're still rolling up to chat with the mattress vendor at Sears. Last century's version of us would see an inherent conflict of interest and instead rely on newspapers, magazines, journalists, reviewers, editors, scholars for our discovery. But the revenue in those vocations is crushed and instead we're sheep among wolves.
They aren’t upselling me or anything.
I find it stark that many folks browse digital stores, while I generally explore articles or videos of unaffiliated experts/curators. I'm still vulnerable to influence, but at least it's not the vendor itself.
A full read on why here (the slug doesn't represent the post very well)[0] but the summary is that other stores for selling shoes don't let me break down my search by detailed options, particularly width.
[0] https://gaiser.io/amazon-is-winning-as-everyone-else-isnt-tr...
So Amazon is amazing in some categories. We just notice when they drop the ball and have terrible results in other categories. We are so used to finding great stuff that it angers us when we cannot.
Honestly it would be cheaper to just buy some of these shows on like iTunes at this rate.
After He-Man released I ended my subscription, just shy of being a 10 year customer.
Agreed. Been with them since the early days (had the DVD service before that), and had only them (and Prime Video, but I rarely used it) until a couple years ago. At this point they're my least favorite streaming service I pay for, and first on the chopping-block when I pare things down soon. If they'd kept prices low, maybe I'd hold on to them, but the hikes even as the service (selection and UI) kept getting worse are just too much.
-- If I log into your platform, and scroll past a recommendation 25 times in a row, then I'm NOT INTERESTED and DO NOT SHOW IT AGAIN.
Netflix has this huge catalog and it feels like it's only 100 crappy things because it only ever shows me 100 things.
My primary experience with both services was when I wanted to watch Game of Thrones a couple years ago. My girlfriend had already bought it on Amazon so I used that app on our smart TV for the first season or two. Every single interaction (even moving the menu cursor) took 1-3 seconds to register. It was miserable.
I ended up subscribing to HBO and buying a PS4 media remote just so that I could stop using Amazon Video.
I honestly wish there was an open source player like Kodi that could be used to play back all these services, and could be customized to not suck.
Heh, if there's a way to customize Kodi's UI to not suck, I've yet to find it after much trying, over many years. I think I may just disagree with some of the fundamentals of how they decided to make it work. My ideal would be a c. 2011 or 2012 Netflix UI, but fed by every source. Closest I've found to that is Jellyfin and piracy.
Somewhere on my probably-won't-ever-get-to-it list of projects is writing a Retroarch "core" with a very basic Jellyfin media browser, using the existing Mplayer core (probably having to re-package and wrap it with mine) to play the streams. That'd be perfect.
The biggest reason I stopped using Prime was that content looked like crap on my 4k monitor due to some weird-ass DRM that doesn't even inhibit piracy, as proof by the fact that I just pirated the 4k version of the show I was watching instead.
So maybe some devices get the B-team devs (but that's just not fair blame/description), or certain devices have a much more difficult environment to dev for or worse, they are trying to use a single "HTML5" JS app for multiple devices that's not as good as a native app for the device. I've been part of an app dev for a specific hardware device where they state HTML5 app, but then force you to use a specific set of JS libraries for that device. each device has it's own hardware limitations that may not treat certain JS the same as another.
There’s no way these product managers are using their own apps from normal consumer devices. Somewhere around the 18th time you don’t get to see your show until after you re-specify the same singular profile, you’d surely realize this doesn’t make sense.
However, that matters much less as long as the app works after that. For other apps, seeking crashes the app. Other apps get stuck in loading after hitting play. Other apps crash when loading more content into a carousel. Some apps start with a crappy low quality stream, and eventually work up to a better stream (where Netflix/Prime/HBO seem to never start that low).
So yes, in my day-to-day usage, that "who's watching" is seen so rarely, it's not a big deal to me. It doesn't occur every time the app is launched.
It’s that interstitial slam on the brakes, after your intent expressed by hitting play on a particular content, that makes no sense.
That reminds me of the worst programmed DVD I ever saw where every time you left a menu to play video, it would jump to another menu for you to choose language/subtitle settings. every. damn. time. I laughed my ass off at the incompetence.
Max :)
Unfortunately, it also includes IMDBTv, that is loaded with ads, while technically also free
Haven't actually tried the service though.
HBO isn't concerned because it didn't "own" those customers.
I decided to watch Purge show the other week. Turned out I liked the premise so I decided to check the rest. They are all over the place. It is genuinely easier for me to order dvds from Amazon.
I find all the streaming wars very interesting if mildly aggravating. Frankly, it is going bring back piracy. Good job content providers:>
Startup idea: Tell us your friends and the services you subscribe to with family/friends sharing. We'll provide a password manager (or an API to your favorite password manager) to get rotating anonymous credentials that spread the cost evenly.
I have memberships to a handful of streaming services and yet somehow everything I've looked up to watch over the last month is not available on any of those services. Some of them are really old too; like the movie "Con Air" for example, but the only place I could find it was Amazon and it was only available to rent/buy.
Relatively speaking, this almost feels worse than the cable and video rental offerings we had two decades ago.
Netflix is good. Amazon Prime is pretty good. HBO Max is terrible. Hulu is kinda crappy. Paramount plus is okay (only use it for Star Trek).
This was all fine until Paramount opted out of some of the aggregated UI APIs.
The Prime app on iPad won't stream at high resolution. The only workaround I've found is to play in a Web browser on the iPad. The overall experience is worse than other streaming apps (but still better than HBO Max, obviously).
From my understanding Hulu shares a lot more metrics data with HBO though, and these days isn't seen so much of a direct competitor and more of a partner. (Though that may change again soon as Disney continues to consolidate power over Hulu, I suppose.)
I wonder how many meetings have had that kind of conversation. I'd assume it is all about the DRM being supported or not.
What's the ideal endgame here? What do they really _need_ the data for? IMO the "recommendations" angle is more geared towards peddling low-quality content onto viewers so I guess the vision is horrible productions of specifically tailored movies/shows.
Can't wait to see what films they start producing to appeal to whichever market segment I fall under
Presumably some large proportion of them will sign up for HBO directly once they can no longer get HBO content through Amazon.
Most people who like HBO shows so much to pay for them, probably aren't going to be deterred by using a separate app. We're used to apps.
> … The deal would create a new business, separate from AT&T… AT&T shareholders would receive stock representing 71% of the new company, while Discovery shareholders would own 29%… AT&T said Discovery President and CEO David Zaslav will lead the new company, which will have a new name announced in coming days.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/att-to-combine-warnermedia-a...