Comment by brianleb | Hacker News Reader

Comment by brianleb | Hacker News Reader

  Prediction #9:   Apple’s laptop sales will exceed those   
  of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010.
  Reason for prediction: Macs rule. Windows laptops are as 
  exciting as a shiny disco ball in the ceiling.

Honestly, to me, that's just absurd on a fundamental level. And the reasoning just reeks of fanboy-ism (note: I have no idea who Steve Yegge is - I just clicked through out of curiosity).

  I tried to actually Google the market share for Macbooks, 
  but it’s probably impossible to find an absolute number.

Not hard. Found the following with two searches in just a few minutes:

Circa Q2'08 (so, four years after the prediction) [1]: Apple laptop North American market share 10.6%. Dell and HP are both 21%, Acer is just under 15%, Toshiba is 9%, and "All Others" are 22%.

Circa Q1'11 Apple Notebooks are 5.7% global market share [2] and Apple is 8.5% of shipped notebooks + desktops [3].

At best, Apple COO Tim Cook says in Oct. 2010 that 20% of sold laptops + desktops are Macs [4].

[1] http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2008/09/apple-gains-us-mar...

[2] http://www.ventureoutsource.com/contract-manufacturing/taiwa...

[3] http://www.notebookcheck.net/Acer-loses-its-Q1-2011-market-s...

[4] http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/App-Store-comes-to...

However, he is correct if you just examine laptop sales among college students:

http://daringfireball.net/misc/2011/07/u-texas.png

When I worked IT for my college, we saw a similar pattern amongst residential computer registrations - almost all of students' machines were laptops, and the majority of those were running OS X.

This might not have been such a big deal back in the day (once they graduated, they probably got a job that forced them to use a PC, and so they stuck with one), but the PC landscape is changing dramatically. Nowadays, it's a lot easier to mainline a Mac after graduating.

Definitely true and I agree with all points. I would wonder how much of the overall laptop-buying population is made up of college students, though? Over time I could definitely see a significant effect (and as is stated elsewhere, Apple is growing much more in that market right now than others), but I would expect that to take upwards of a decade, as you can only 'convert' so many new college students each year.

Given the higher baseline cost of Macs, I would expect them to be more prevalent among college students because a) those people can afford to go to college and b) financial aid makes the difference between a $500 HP and a $1000 MacBook seem much less significant. I am still surprised by that infographic, though: 52% OSX wireless users! I probably would have guessed something more along the lines of 33%.

You're surprised because you haven't been on a college campus in the last five years. I'm amazed it's that low.

For most jobs, are there really any barriers left to using a Mac at home and PC at work? Considering computing for the vast majority of workers likely consists of email, excel, word, and powerpoint, I can't think of many. Certainly in-house apps would only work on Windows, but who uses those on their home computer?

Are we talking about work or home computers?

Overwhelming user pressure is slowly bringing Macs into the workplace, but they're only feasible because something like Citrix XenApp (aka Presentation Manager aka Metaframe) servers allow access to decades of in-house Windows applications.

But when those students arrive at Big Corp they're most likely to be issued a PC laptop. A more interesting stat would be the market share of purchases where the person paying is the person who'll use the machine.

It's hard to say what Steve meant by "laptop sales". I'm assuming that your interpretation (unit sales) is probably correct and Apple is definitely not that large. Their growth is certainly outpacing the industry, so maybe Steve is off in timing, but Apple doesn't keep on the low end which makes it harder to build up unit volume.

Even by revenue metrics, I doubt that Apple is bigger than all of those brands combined.

The thing is that Apple seems to maximize on profit (silly folks, they should know that market share is what you're going for). I couldn't find the figures, but I'd be curious to see what percentage of laptop profits belong to Apple. In the case of mobile phones, Apple now gets 60% of the profit in the industry.

> EDIT: And the downvotes are because...?

Ok, I'll bite. I downvoted you for not knowing who Steve Yegge is.

And that is valid in what way? Seriously. I wikipedia'd him before posting and nothing stood out as something that would change my opinion of his prediction.

His identity has no bearing on his being right or wrong. My knowledge of him (or lack thereof) doesn't mean that my criticism is invalid.

I'm sorry I'm not a programmer?

EDIT: So apparently my criticism is invalid? Would anyone care to explain why?

> And that is valid in what way?

Here's your quote: "And the reasoning just reeks of fanboy-ism"

You didn't call him a fanboy, but that's just a technicality. You implied. Therefore, the objection is valid. Before you name-call, know who you are name-calling. (or better yet, make a more thoughtful case)

Personally, I downvoted you asking about the downvotes. Just suck it up and stop whining. (Incidentally, as is often the case, plenty of people came along after and, caring more about the rest of your post, upvoted accordingly.)

Alright, I removed "EDIT: And the downvotes are because...?" as per your request. It was there because I felt like there was nothing wrong with my comment (and still do) and so if someone could bring something to the discussion rather than just downvote me, I would appreciate it. So far, at least two of you have downvoted me for nothing involving what I actually said. More than that still have yet to produce actual criticism.

This all still doesn't explain how "Macs rule" is a valid and unbiased explanation of how MacBooks would come to account for over one-in-two laptops sold.[1] Doesn't that sound absurd if you say it out loud? "Every second person in the country owns a MacBook." That is quite the jump for a company whose cheapest (new, not used) laptop offering appears to start at $999 [2] and who only holds 5% to at best 20% of the market share.

[1] This is slightly simplified to a world where all laptops are either produced by Apple or they are Windows machines produced by the four companies he mentioned.

> better yet, make a more thoughtful case

I would say the same to you: why should I know who I am "name-calling?" You haven't told me any reason that his opinion shouldn't be taken at face value.

[2] http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/shop_mac?mco=OTY2ODQxN...

This all still doesn't explain how "Macs rule" is a valid and unbiased explanation of how MacBooks would come to account for over one-in-two laptops sold.

Why on Earth do you want someone to defend "Macs rule" as unbiased? Who is claiming it is unbiased?

I would say the same to you: why should I know who I am "name-calling?

Because then you'd realise why you are being downvoted. It's like you are downvoting Mr Burns for being biased in favour of nuclear power, or something. Yegge's style is humorous and pushy, not graphs and references. Lots of stuff he writes sounds a bit silly.

Thank you. All someone had to tell me was something like this. Now I understand much better.

At face value, Yegge's comment lacks substance and the opinion is not well-supported, that's about the only valid criticism. Speculate about the author's motives at your own risk.

I think people downvote rather than comment to avoid uninteresting nit-picky arguments like this. I would love a way to attach an anonymous private message to a downvote but that's probably a non-trivial feature to implement.

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