Hacker News Reader

Comment by echelon | Hacker News Reader

The world isn't instantly switching to batteries. There's no infrastructure where I live and I can't charge an electric vehicle at either of my condos.

My mom lives in the suburbs and I see very few Teslas there. Mostly pickup trucks. Cybertruck is not going to appeal to those folks.

There is plenty of time for the incumbents to catch up. Especially when Japan will stand behind their car industry.

EVs are still in the Virtual Reality phase of the adoption curve.

I'm not going to bet against Tesla, but I'd be happy to buy your Toyota shares at a discount.

View on HN

Teslas are still selling like hotcakes, and have a 4-6 month wait right now. I see a few more every month in my flyover state. New service center being made in my town.

I have only owned 1 condo, but power meters were right by my deeded parking spot. Would have been very easy to slap a charger in.

Cannot imagine going back to a Toyota after this. The future is now. Just a matter of if Toyota is able to catch up, or if they have missed the train. They had a huge lead with Prius, and so far have squandered it on fuel cell chasing.

So you don't have power in those condos? 95% of charging happens at home.

Long trips are well served by the Super/destination charger network. You'll be surprised how much availability there is: https://www.tesla.com/findus

Thinking through the particulars in my case: How do I charge if I only have street parking? Can I rely on superchargers only? What's the price of those vs charging at home vs gas? Will I destroy my battery over time if I do that? Am I giving up the thing I like most about my current car (2013 civic -- never leaves me stranded + basically only have to get the oil changed + replace wearable items)?

The greater reliability of EVs is one of the factors pushing business uptake in areas like taxis.

If you dont drive many miles then todays EVs are already fine for your use case. If you drive a lot then the fuel savings are enough for you to want to make it work.

Lots of places (theaters, grocery stores) have destination chargers (some are even free). If you go to those once or twice a week, top up there. If you don't drive much, a weekly supercharger visit is fine. Keep in mind that charging is currently worst case. It will improve by ~50% each year.

Battery degradation is not something you should be worried about. It will remain above 85-90% for hundreds of thousands of miles.

Don't forget about depreciation. Gas cars will be worth nothing soon as millions become undesirable. Electric will be so in demand that they'll barely depreciate. Used Model 3s right now are selling for thousands more than a new one.

> Gas cars will be worth nothing soon as millions become undesirable.

Long bet: in 10 years you're wrong.

I would put some money on this. There are very few inherit benefits to gas right now except "faster to refill" and "more range between stops". Both get solved by increasing battery densities, charging speeds, etc. At 300 miles range, I have 1 common trip I need to charge for 5 minutes. At 400 miles range (which I can get on an S), all my common trips are charge free. Vacation trips already work great with 300 miles range.

Vague bet. What does "worth nothing" mean? Obviously collectibles will be worth something and even crappy cars will have scrap value.

Gas stations will start going under. Gas prices will increase. Parts will stop being made or have prices increase. Used market will be flooded, in a race to the bottom. New electric cars will become cheaper and charging ubiquitous. Battery charging speeds will improve.

This means that within the decade, EVs will be more convenient and cheaper (already cheaper including lifetime costs).

Think about how hard it was to get reliable internet on your cell phone for streaming video.

iPhone was released in 2007 followed by rapid deployment of infrastructure. I have been streaming Netflix reliably even in a moving car since at least 2016 or 2017. It took less than a decade.

When consumers demand infrastructure, it arrives swiftly.

Yeah.. It's clear that the incumbents are paying very close attention to trends. Not sure why anyone would bet against them, particularly Japanese auto.. I can guess though haha.

Heck, the first EV I would look into if I were in the market ATM would be the Chevy Bolt EV/EUV haha.

Toyota is behind GM, Ford, VW, Hyundai and everybody else.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com