Thanks so much for the edit, arbuge, just updated my typo.
For the first point, that's actually quite an embarrassing oversight if I've misunderstood. In the books I read, I understood that the expected return was total, not yearly. So the standard math is that you get 20% of $500k PER YEAR? If so, gotta update the math on this one - the outcomes are radically different than what I report.