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Comment by oplav | Hacker News Reader

Do you know how the rate compares to 2019?

Without looking extensively, it seems that it's usually between 1000 and 1500 per 100k per annum, so between 20 to 30 per week as a direct comparison. This seems steady over recent history. This compared to a rate for the vaccinated that went from 20 to 100 over spring and summer. The only thing that springs to mind is that maybe the treatment of with-covid/from-covid deaths became less significant through the year and previously understated alternative causes start showing up in non-covid deaths. Still strange that it has risen so high in absolute terms though.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...

I took a look at the data, and it looks like deaths after 1 dose go up by ~3x vs unvaccinated, while deaths after 2 doses go down ~3x vs unvaccinated. Am I reading that right? Any idea why that might be?

Are you referring to table 5, non-covid deaths? 2-dosed people have a lower absolute rate, but it still trends steadily upwards while unvaccinated trend steadily downwards.

Or are you referring to the deaths from covid?

The “100” is specifically for the population of 21 days after first dose, i.e. those who didn’t get their second dose of vaccine. You can see the population who fall into the “21 days after” shrinks the whole time the “Second dose” population grows. Probably there’s something specific to those people who didn’t get or were unable to get the second dose of the vaccine that elevates their risk of mortality, like poverty, low education, or poor health.

It would need to be a heck of a big effect to drive that sort of elevation in mortality.

I suppose conceivably there is a strong adverse selection/sorting effect happening, but I’m not sure that fits with the pattern. Need to think about it. (Note also the upward trend of the second-dosed.) I think it’s more likely an issue with the way the data is collected.

I would not be surprised if there _was_ a heck of a big effect -- something along the lines of "how bad the vaccine side effects hit you is strongly correlated with general health such that people who are less healthy tend to have worse side effects, and people who have particularly bad side effects from their first dose are less likely to get a second dose".

I don't have time to look into it right now, but if that were the case we should expect the mortality rate for single-dosers to go up two weeks after their first dose in countries with a two week gap between doses and twelve weeks after their first dose in countries with a twelve week gap (i.e. people in the 12 week gap countries who are 6 weeks after dose 1 should have much lower mortality than people in the 2 week gap countries who are 6 weeks after dose 1 and have not gotten a dose 2, even after controlling for age and comorbidities).

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