Fukushima Radiation Breaks the Scale — No Idea by How Much.. Can’t Measure It | Hacker News Reader

Fukushima Radiation Breaks the Scale — No Idea by How Much.. Can’t Measure It

cleantechnica.com

24 pointsmegaman82127 comments

Sigh. I'm a fairly pro-nuclear guy and the situation at Fukushima has, apparently has actually been the worst possible disaster it can have. The latest measurements from insider the reactors indicates that core material is exposed outside the pressure vessel. The basis for that is several sieverts of radiation they are measuring in those areas. And those levels would not be produced by byproducts in water sadly.

So on the one hand we can be impressed that only the oldest two reactors in Japan, sitting at the epicenter of the biggest natural disaster Japan has ever experienced has had this failure. Other newer reactors on the same site were successfully shut down and made safe. But the 1 & 2 reactors have it would seem failed completely. Right out past the limits of their safety system. (if the reactor vessel ruptured, and it seems like it has)

That makes cleanup that much harder, it makes the likely hood that the site of those reactors being re-used is zero. And it means that TEPCO is going to probably go bankrupt based on the costs.

What it doesn't mean is that the folks in Fukushima are in any more danger now then they were 5 months ago. It doesn't mean that the radiation will 'escape' and kill people, or even that anyone will die. It doesn't mean that the surrounding area is in danger of more contamination.

I was more interested in the way folks were measuring radioactive fallout on a much finer scale using 'home made' measurement devices. This crowd sourced contamination map can help track down where contaminants have been concentrated in the surrounding area and become a problem. That is, in my opinion, the more impactful problem to address. Decontaminate the area around the plants and let the engineers work on their plans for dismantling what is left of reactors 1 & 2.

Agreed. This whole mess has been nothing but a demonstration of how awesome our technology is; homemade fallout counters are just one manifestation. For me, the very most important statistic is simple: zero deaths from radiation.

Zero deaths directly from radiation so far.

This isn't too surprising, given that everyone working at the plant knew that it was melting down, and were taking precautions.

You can expect elevated cancer rates in the surrounding population, and from the people who stayed at the plant trying to stop the disaster.

This is a concern but it has not been borne out by previous events. One of the challenges (and its a 'good' challenge) is that we don't have a lot of data about what happens when people are exposed to environmental contamination. Primary sources are the post Hiroshima/Nagasaki bombings, testing data from populations in Utah and Nevada who were down wind of the test site. And folks who were exposed in the Bikini islands during testing there.

One of the effects of the low number of data points was that latent radiation enhanced cancer deaths which were predicted for folks around Chernobyl didn't actually materialize according to the UN report. Basically the theory is still being developed and their predictions were off (by quite a bit as it turned out).

The situation is compounded by the fact that humans have evolved in a 'radiation rich' environment (relatively speaking) with UV skin damage, Radon gas sources, natural radioactivity in the earth, etc. So our bodies have a number of mechanisms which automatically deal with being exposed to radiation. If they did not, getting an x-ray would be a very dangerous thing indeed.

So we know you can be killed by an over exposure, and we know pretty accurately what those exposure rates are and yes nobody at Fukushima has had anywhere close to that level of exposure. (not to say someone couldn't walk buck naked into one of the reactor buildings and off themselves, but that is a different issue entirely)

And yes, there are radioisotopes in the environment around the plant that have raised the level of radioactive exposure folks living in those zones get. But it is entirely unclear whether or not that will lead to any significant increase in cancer (which is to say distinguishable from other causes).

So folks will be watching for elevated cancer rates of course, but if Chernobyl was any indication of what happens post accident they won't find any. Understand that the quantity and distribution of material from the Chernobyl accident still eclipses what non-TEPCO sources (notably the US DoE and the IAEA) have documented from this one by a large amount.

Given the Chernobyl results and the relative amounts of radioactive material released, I would be very surprised if there were was a higher elevation in cancer rates in Japan. Lots of economic impact, farmers can't sell food that has become contaminated, but I think the health risks are much lower than the more outspoken coverage would lead you to believe.

Huh? Estimates on deaths due to the Chernobyl disaster are in excess of 1 million people.

In that case, even in the immediate aftermath, a couple of battalions of soldiers and firemen died within months.

We're talking about the Fukushima disaster, not the Chernobyl disaster. Fukushima has caused no deaths from radiation thus far.

how do you know that's true?

It is often sensible to fail to believe in something in the absence of evidence for that something.

Just to make this clear - there is no such thing as "too high for a geiger counter to read". There is "too high for the geiger counter in my hand to read", just as with any other instrument, but all they have to do to get a better reading is find a less sensitive counter or one with a smaller aperture. I suspect that TEPCO has already done so and that they're just rounding things off for the press.

But then they couldn't go fearmongering to get more ad impressions!

It's now been 5 months of dire predictions and yet it apparently remains somewhat under control? Are there any decent summaries of that the genuine situation and implications? This article just sounds like more of the questionable-source, hysterical variety.

There's no proof that anything is "under control" really. There's a 30km exclusion zone so there's not too much risk of radiation floating into populated areas (that we know of). so as I see it it's a matter of what information we're getting from TEPCO, which isn't a lot. There won't be any more explosions to send material into the air, and that's all we know.

If there won't be more radiation getting into populated areas and there won't be any more explosions... then that pretty much sounds like you're saying it is under control. The 30km exclusion zone might not be a control that we are happy with for the long term, but it is a control.

an exclusion zone is not a control; it's an acknowledgement of lack of control.

Well it certainly seems to have put the situation under control...

if by that you mean it has partially (and to what extent is unknown) isolated the thing we can't control at all and will be cleaning up for 30+ years (stated by nuclear expert in video fta), then yeah it's all fine. unless you can prove that all ill effects are contained within that exclusion zone, it's not control, it's the illusion of control to make yourself feel better.

so if they're finding radiation in rice crops hundreds of km away, is that still control?

As I said, we may not be satisfied with the control, but isolation is in fact a type of control.

Welcome to the HN reality distortion field...

"It is bizarre that people are upset about this. After all, nobody has ever died as a result of a nuclear accident, right?"

How many people have died of this one?

Downvotes, huh. I guess I'm not supposed to ask that question for some reason.

It's safe to say the many of the workers who tried to stabilize the reactors will meet early ends due to cancer, etc. Beyond that, we'll learn that from public health statistics.

i'm pretty amazed at the handwashing here. not absolutely sure there's anything to see here, so move along and don't linger...

Here's what appears to be the original press release that this article (and related ones) are getting this from: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11080201-e....

"At 2:30 pm on August 1, as radiation level of surface of connection of emergency gas treatment system piping arrangement at the bottom of main exhaust stuck of unit 1 and 2 was detected over 10 Sv/h, keep the area out for restricted area with signature. We will consider countermeasure such as shilding."

Note that it does not mention anything like "too high for measurement".

It is almost always the case that "too high for measurement" means "the guy with the meter is telling you a fish story" or "the guy with the meter doesn't know which end to hold."

In comparison: the Chernobyl output was at 300 Sieverts near the reactor core shortly after the explosion.

Edit: forgot the source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster

Output _where_? The measurement reported is on the second floor inside the reactor building.

Remember when the government telling us that radiation levels were safe and nothing bad would happen?

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