> I mean Florida and Texas went to extreme ‘do nothing at all’ positions, and the results were not good.
Texas (23rd overall; 211/100k) and Florida (10th overall; 237/100k) are both mid-pack amongst US states for Covid mortality rate, even before adjusting by age (if you adjust by age, Florida, in particular, looks better, because of the number of elderly people who move there to retire):
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi...
Among those states doing substantially worse:
For Florida: New Jersey (306/100k), New York (281/100k), Massachusetts (267/100k)
For Texas: all of the above, plus Connecticut (237/100k), Pennsylvania (235/100k), and maybe Illinois (212/100k)
All of these are states whose governors imposed stringent restrictions on daily life. Florida and Texas have certainly been intensely covered by the press, but the reality of the situation is not accurately reflected by the intensity of the news coverage.
--
EDIT: Others are quick to point out that the distribution of mortality over time is different for these states, which is true. But you also cannot leap to the conclusion that the most recent differences in mortality are due to policy decisions made months ago. Florida saw >60% of its Covid-related deaths prior to March 2021 (the advent of mass vaccination), but it lifted most Covid restrictions starting in October 2020:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/florida-lifts-covid-19-restric...
Any claim that New York (for example) did far better during the pre-vaccination period has to contend with the fact that 87% of its mortality happened prior to vaccination, despite substantially greater restrictions on daily life:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
One could argue that NY is a special case, since most of its mortality happened in spring 2020. But that isn't true for, say, Illinois, which had the vast majority of its deaths in the winter of 2020, and still saw 85% of its total mortality prior to March 1:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/
There is no simple narrative here. Seasonality, climate and chance (i.e. who gets hit first) all play a large role in how states do. People are far too quick to attribute success or failure to a single factor.