Did a Chinese hack kill Nortel? (2020)
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Not only that, but from what I'm understanding it seems like the entire company was compromised so deeply that almost every email/document seems to have found its way back to China. And it took years after their bankruptcy to finally get an accurate idea of how wide the breach was because Nortel itself seemed to really not care about that at all. Why then would the Canadian government bail out and finance Nortel when it amounted to bankrolling Chinese research?
I think the real mistake was to let the expertise go to complete waste, it's just mind-boggling that only Huawei was smart enough to take advantage of such a concentration of talent. The Canadian government could've let Nortel die but financed a successor to replace them, or done something to help out the engineers left in the dust
But I guess Canada has a very long history of losing every single cutting edge tech hubs it has, while doing very little about it. Because why even bother when you are a petrostate?
There weren't other companies to hire them all. Ottawa's tech scene was mostly Nortel. Without it, what could they all do with the skillsets they had? One close friend of mine, his dad became a cabinet maker. Just started over entirely.
Was it Huawei? Hard to say. But whoever hacked Nortel attacked my community, in my mind.
Why? Didn't they see what happened with Enron? Or did they try to diversify but couldn't?
Plus holding large amounts of your net worth in your company’s stock where you can only sell it at certain times of years doesn’t seem like a great plan.
ISO’s are different of course. It could indeed make a lot of sense to not exercise them for tax purposes.
That is the kind of response that I would expect. But I never heard about anything even close to that from the Canadian government.
[0] https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdwa/pr/chinese-telecommunicati...
[1] https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/chinese-telecommunications-co...
They seem to be alive and kicking in Swedish shops though.
That is not true at all. Most countries outside the US have them, especially in "western civilization". Hardly anyone follow the US line these days. Family members just bought two of their newest.
(IMO Google Android ban is overkill)
When the managerial class have finished abusing and ripping value from the company and its workers, it is a classic for them to lay the blame with the others: the inhuman Japanese, the dirty Mexicans, the cheating Chinese - they took your job and stole your wealth - not us, we are on your side.
Amazing how it still works and how little people learn from their own history.
There were many reasons for Nortel's collapse: huge numbers of unprofitable acquisitions during the dot com bubble, the collapse of the bubble, the fall in demand for networking gear after the bubble, financial fraud. To pin the blame on a company that was barely even competing with Nortel at the time, and which just so happens to be the bogeyman in 2021, is just too convenient.
The rise of ZTE and Huawei comes much later (around the introduction of 4G - they start winning contracts in Scandinavia), and to me mostly because they were willing to invest in research at a time when western companies were not.
Huawei, from nowhere, suddenly had very cheap networking products. So cheap they effectively killed Marconi's bid.
It was an open joke at the time that they were copies of Cisco products (the other winning supplier) down to the bugs. No one cared because they were so cheap.
Personally, I blame BT's executives for not seeing the value in keeping a local manufacturer (just up the road) as one of their suppliers.
1. https://static.cambridge.org/binary/version/id/urn:cambridge...
2. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-story...
Just looked this up: Huawei was selected by BT in 2005. That's already about 4 years after Nortel's initial collapse, and a year after the SEC began investigating Nortel for financial fraud. Again, this illustrates how blaming Huawei for Nortel's fall doesn't make chronological sense.
1. Around that time, I worked for a telecom startup down the street from Nortel in Kanata. It went bankrupt after Worldcom dupped us into thinking it was buying our tech. It was a lie, and Worldcom was cooking the books. Telecom was starting to implode. Who knows who else was lying.
2. EVERYBODY in Ottawa knew someone that worked at Nortel. How could one, or a few hacks, take the work product of thousands of thousands of people and create another products. Heck, I can barely understand some of the open source products, and they have docs! Maybe they solved a problem of how some things were being done?! Either way, it's one thing to get ahead, it's another to stay ahead.
3. My good friend at the time was one of those that went down with the ship. Lost all his stocks and years and years of work at Nortel. He was a senior engineer and he told me mismanagement was starting to happen from the late 80s. Even in the late 90s, Nortel was throwing so many parties, and hiring anyone. They were just burning money. We always wondered where did they get all the money and how could they afford to hire so many people that barely qualified?!?
I don't claim to have all the answers, but like most things in life, it's not one cut that kills you, it's the other 999.
Telecom's big fall: https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2002-04-07-02040600...
Nortel Guangzhou had bamboo ceiling on Chinese management roles in the late 90s that extended to even Chinese Canadians. Big surprise when entire engineering teams got poached by ZTE and Huawei. A Chinese Canadian aquaintence who started in Nortel Ottawa poached most of his Nortel GZ engineering team because state companies simply compensated better and provided more opportunities. A few years later, he poached a bunch of engineers from state company back to a foreign one who promoted. PRC talent would rather stay working with foreign multinations due to prestige and better conditions especially in the late 90s, but at the end of the day, money talks.
And then there's this WSJ article: "Huawei Technologies Co. said a small portion of its router software apparently was copied from Cisco Systems Inc., but the Chinese company said it is removing the tainted software from its routers globally." https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10485560675556000
Edit: Nevermind looks like it was made by BOE. https://pocketnow.com/the-new-huawei-mate-x2-will-not-use-sa...
Interesting juxtaposition haha.
So one day if the revenue begins shrinking and they double down by going into debt to expand, then yes they could be facing bankruptcy just like Nortel.
The majority of their sales come from software and services now. The business you are likely thinking of when you picture Cisco, has been shrinking. Growth in their other segments (whether organic or acquired) is keeping them flat more or less across the past five years (both sales and operating profit have been close to flat going back to fiscal 2017).
"Cisco finished 1Q21 with a year-over-year increase of 3.4% in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 49.3%. In the higher-speed segment of the Ethernet switch market (25Gb/50Gb,100Gb & 200Gb/400Gb), Cisco is the market leader with 40.9% of revenues. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue grew 18.5% year over year, with enterprise router revenue decreasing 1.3% and SP revenues increasing 33.2% year over year. Cisco's combined SP and enterprise router market share stands at 37.6%."
A lot of cloud growth is reflected outside the cloud. Corporations still need networks even if they do some things in the cloud. There's generally just a lot more traffic all over the place.
This isn't really commodity. I work in this industry. a 400Gb switch isn't something you just build yourself or buy at your local electronics store. There is definitely competition but it's not exactly what I'd call commodification. What is true is that some of the building blocks are available...
There's definitely a range of future outcomes for this company but it's not gonna be the cloud that does it. Could be another bubble burst or major economic downturn combined with other factors (which I guess was sort of the Nortel story, though I doubt Nortel was sitting on as much cash as some of their contemporaries).
That's not even Cisco biggest problem. Businesses still need to buy networking equipment, and there a more small datacenters than ever, but they aren't buying Cisco anymore. 10 years ago, Cisco was pretty much your number one choice, now they can't really compete. I'd be surprised if we have much Cisco equipment left in five years. It's almost like their R&D just stopped. Our next green field networking project will be completely without Cisco equipment, and we've been a Cisco partner for 15 years.
Huawei wasn't even a major player outside of China back when Nortel fell into trouble. From 2001-2004, Nortel's sales collapsed, it began downsizing, and the share price plummeted. In 2004, the SEC began investigating the company for financial fraud (misstating earnings).[1] Huawei only began to expand its overseas sales in 2003-2004.
The idea that hackers (whose identity isn't even known) brought down Nortel is just post facto rationalization of the mismanagement of the company. When the article says the hack began, in April 2004, Nortel's stock price was already down by over 90%, and the SEC was just announcing its investigation into financial irregularities at the company.
1. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nortel-timeline-sb-idUKTR...
having to compete with a company that has the backing of a state government and that has access to your plans and contract bidding pricing it wouldn't be hard to take them out.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/dnd-may-abandon-1b-move-to-for...
The DND changed their story a few times, but the latest AFAIK is that they deny any listening devices had been found. https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/the-my...
Just see what percentage of students in Canadian schools are from China. Feels like Beijing every time I visit a Canadian engineering school.
It seems Canada has a problem with real estate too linked to Chinese investment.
I wonder if it’s any different in US or elsewhere.
I mean, from the description in the article of how the hack occurred, and how management basically did nothing to respond, makes it pretty clear that if weren't a Chinese government hack, it would have been something else. Nortel management appeared very "asleep at the wheel" and it seems pretty apparent the company was suffering from a significant cultural rot.
They (and the CCP) will fund 100% of the rollout for a telecom to use their 5G server equipment. For Western mfgs. to compete, either Huawei has to be banned, or equivalent pricing and funding has to be instantly available. Or no sale.
Nortel never had a chance to compete with that.
The US funds Boeing's overseas sales via the Export-Import Bank, but that plan has to be extended to domestic and foreign 5G sales.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export%E2%80%93Import_Bank_of_...
Did not read the article as a result.
- Iran attacks Iraq, and China/Russia gives support? Would Nato/US still have the stomach to go back into Middle East? This would allow China to fully utilize its full ground army force and massive train network that now stretches into Central Asia and Europe. And if Iraq falls, Saudi Arabia, United emirates should fall easily, and those are oil countries that will give China massive resources and wealth. US is fairly self sufficient in terms of oil resources, but not Europe! Europe, under gas and oil resource stranglement, will acquiesce to any demands from Russia + China.
- Turkey attacks Greece on grounds of islands contestations. Again, this would allow China to fully utilize its full ground army force and massive train network that now stretches into Central Asia and Europe. After Greece, Russia can easily retake most of its former colonies, and give China a way into Central Europe.
bro, it's not 1989 anymore
Like Kissinger said "it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."