Just as an example: I live in an urban area and generally take public transportation, but for many reasons having a car would be a good idea. So I buy a car.
First-order effect: my monthly payments go up; going further faster is easier; I can get more groceries at once
Second-order effect: because payments went up, I have less money for other fun things; because I can go further, faster, I drive more often; because I can get more groceries at once, I save money by buying in bulk
Third-order effect: because I have less money for other things, I stay home more often; because I drive more often, I'm walking less and therefore burning fewer calories; by buying in bulk, I have more food on-hand at home
Fourth-order effect: because I stay home more often AND I have more food on hand AND I walk less, I gain weight
Fifth-order effect: weight gain leads to worsening self-esteem, higher risk factors for disease, needing new clothes (and Nth order of less money again!)
But most people just stop at the first one and then are shocked and have to deal with the consequences of their own actions because they didn't think things through.
Not to get political or anything, but think about what people say about these issues:
- anti-vaxx positions ("my freedom!" -> nth-order effect of "my choice kills other people")
- anti-choice positions ("ban killing babies" -> nth-order effects might be: increased poverty, increased populations in schools, fewer taxpayer dollars to go around)
- NIMBYism ("not in my back yard" -> gentrification, eventual collapse of unsustainable economy where poor are priced out)
- labor shortages (and so on)
- various forms of government (and so on)
If people were more likely to think about the Nth-order effects of their actions, I firmly believe we'd be in a better place.
So how do we teach this kind of thinking to more people?
I'm not entirely sure, but my best idea right now is to teach everyone how to play chess.
Anyway, it's something I think about quite frequently. If only my cousin could see past her first instinct and grasp the consequences of her actions, her family might be less messed up.