My hope comes from personal experience. Not exactly empirical. I’ve been involved in the climate movement for a long time now (since before I was even a teenager) and things have improved vastly during my life alone. If you asked me this question a few years ago I would be down in the dumps, but what I see around me these days has me much more positive of how humanity makes it through this. (I’m sorry I don’t really have one specific link or citation. Yale Climate Communication is a good place to start though)

There is still a lot of losses and a lot of inaction. I don’t know if humanity will have a peaceful time mid or late century, but I don’t think the situation is as dire as it used to be.