I've been in Alberta my entire life and seen the boom and bust cycle (partially from inside oil and gas software companies), but this cycle in particular is different. While I have been very successful in my life as an Albertan (two sweat exits so far, one more likely), it has been entirely because I sought work and built startups remotely from 2006 onward in other regions.

There's no guarantee the economy will recover at this point, and if it does, the likelihood of hitting the 2008 highs is vanishingly small.

There's no plan and has never been a plan to manage the resources of the province, so even the hint of a boom will distort wages up and down the ecosystem for a short period, followed by the waves of layoffs once that hint disappears and massive damage to every industry in the province.

I joined the board of the Alberta tech ecosystem for a term in the late 2010s while angel investing locally, and the picture was dismal but there were sparks of a revival. The current government that took power a few years ago completely ignored the new reality of the province and stomped on the ashes of the ecosystem.

Alberta is unfortunately heading towards Detroit-level dysfunction. There will still be activity, but the Alberta of the past is gone forever.

The only hope Alberta has is to switch government tracks and spend a real decade rebuilding from the continual societal damage that energy has impacted on it. And I'm not even talking about the environment yet. There is a real risk that Alberta will hollow-out and become little more than a slightly richer Saskatchewan.