Comment by arcticbull | Hacker News Reader

Comment by arcticbull | Hacker News Reader

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Totally, and at some point in the future, if they're super lucky, they might be worth something around half of what they're worth today lol. I don't think they're going to grow the car market, which means they're worth at most what the car market is today. Further, I sincerely doubt theres a world in which they own 100% of the car market, so that means it's overvalued both now and into the future.

Toyota's worth 300B and they have excellent industry-leading margins. Tesla is priced at 900B while shipping a tiny fraction of the cars.

[edit] Tesla shipped 241,000 cars this quarter. Toyota shipped 2.2M. Tesla's car deliveries are literally a rounding error against Toyota's. It would take 6 years of 50% YoY growth to match Toyota's shipments alone this year.

[edit2] Toyota's PE is 9.6, so once mature, Tesla should also trade right around a 9.6 p/e, if they're really lucky.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/267272/worldwide-vehicle...

I would gladly bet on a company making 241,000 computers vs 2.2M typewriters. I get your logic and math but this isn't apples to apples.

Market valuation depends on expected future profit margin per car. Not on how many million low margin cars you have already shipped. Walmart has the highest revenue, while Apple has the highest profit. Shipping a bunch of low margin stuff is of little value.

The market expects tesla to beat Toyota by an order if magnitude on profit margin per car. As simple as that.

But they won't, and I don't know why anyone thinks that they will.

TBH, that's a prediction of the future that you haven't substantiated.

The fact that the have insane YOY growth with 14B quarterly revenue, are supply constrained - not demand constrained, have very high profit margin per car if you exclude new giga factory investments is sufficient to justify the stock price.

Again, that doesn’t make sense. Apple being the obvious example. You don’t necessarily revert to a market cap maximum. EVs can have high margins and scale. Tesla is positioned as the Apple of its market.

And its business is more than vehicles - a lot more. Stationary batteries also have fat margins.

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