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Comment by dlp211 | Hacker News Reader

You say this as the Ford F-150 Lighting is about to drop and there is a waiting list for the Ford Mach-E. I think the market is vastly underestimating the large incumbents ability to pivot into this sector and lower costs by leveraging their supply chain and scale.

I don't think anything you said justifies their current market cap.

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> You say this as the Ford F-150 Lighting is about to drop

They're planning on making:

2022: 15,000

2023: 55,000

2024: 80,000

so that won't even put a dent in Tesla making well over a million electric vehicles per year.

[1] https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/ford-f-150-lightning-e...

There is a waiting list because they aren’t making many of them.

Supply chains are in a dire state right now, with less-agile firms slow to adapt. And if you believe the thesis behind "Innovator's Dilemma" the scale tuned for ICE is a liability not an asset.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Do you think battery availability is going to hinder the large incumbents' ability to scale here?

Most definitely. And the gigafactories are often overlooked. They are now and will only become more of a competitive advantage.

I think this is their biggest challenge. I also think that companies like Ford, Toyota, etc. have centuries of combined experience of supply chain management and relationships that they can leverage. I also think that if these large companies are battery constrained, then so will Tesla, even if Tesla is able to capture more of the supply, it won't matter because customers will have to continue to go to Ford and Toyota for cars in a battery constrained world to get ICE vehicles.

There are waiting lists for Mach-E because they can't make it enough. Go actually look how many Mach-E are produced compared to Tesla Model Y. There is a reason for that.

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