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Comment by jaredwiener | Hacker News Reader

Also -- wouldn't it be a safe assumption that photo editors are choosing the pictures that match the tone of the news they are reporting on? This seems like a roundabout way of saying that financial news seems to mostly accurately report the state of financial markets....

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Ah, that pesky reverse causation thing ...

In fact, one might get even better results if one trains the model on the daily market charts newspapers publish such as this: https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/x/stock-market-newspaper-backg...

Oh, that's harder to get than the top-10 list at Getty, I see. Yeah, convenience sampling is king.

Is one of the authors "Not Sure!" by any chance?

Sure. That would be why using this or a similar method as a synthesis or proxy to aid prediction could have value, right? An issue is that methods of money management one might use in conjunction with this type of system can themselves have determinism for total returns. Measuring effectiveness would be hard.

Assuming the news gets printed before market open (not really a safe assumption in the digital age), for this to have predictive power one would have to be looking at the intraday difference from market open to close, or the difference from previous close to today's open, not from previous close to today's close. It's not clear from the abstract/article which they looked at.

They're writing about predict stock returns not just simply matching the current state. But yeah, I'm also skeptical about it.

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