> It is impossible to test all hardware configs in all conditions with internal QA, hence public beta.
10k to be a beta tester
10k to be a beta tester
I'd also like to point out that you can get it through a subscription for $99/month if you already have Enhanced Autopilot ($199/month if not).
https://medium.com/swlh/30-000-from-a-tesla-robotaxi-not-as-...
https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil...
How many units of belief do you have left in the true believer tank?
I really want to like Tesla, but the wacko things coming from the mouths of Musk and Tesla fanboys make it so difficult.
Here's one version of the napkin math.
According to AAA average cost of owning a car in US is $8k per year.
Average driving in US is 12k miles per year.
A $25k robotaxi with 1 million mile battery can provide the service for 10 cents per mile.
That's $8k of value delivered for $1.2k. Let's round it up: $8k - $2k is $6k of profit per year.
This is to replace a single car which is, on average, 2 hours of driving per year.
So assume 8 hours of "paid" driving gives us $6 * 4 = $24 k of profit per year.
You can plug your own assumptions. I think those are pretty conservative but let's round it down to $10k a year profit.
At 10 years per car that's $100k profit from FSD software.
1. I didn’t buy my car to have it drive around on its own working a day job
2. I don’t want to absorb the insurance / maintenance hit of having my car be a road warrior while I’m working
3. My Tesla cost closer to $50k than $25k
4. I do not live in an area where taxis are a major mode of transport
I’m sure there are people in the world that could get $100k of value out of a robotaxi. But I don’t think they’re the median or mean purchaser of a self-driving car.
I thought that was the bulk of their target market - people who don't really do the math on vehicle depreciation and such.
I know people who make money doing it, but they're driving very cheap to run cars, and are pretty careful about how they do it, and are spreadsheet-heavy on proving it.
It doesn't have to be a Tesla car.
The math works just as well for Ford robotaxi or Waymo robotaxi.
The only way this doesn’t happen is if robotaxis cost more to buy or operate than it’s worth for the average person to do so.
Be it Tesla or Waymo or GM.
So unless you can develop your own FSD software and build millions of cars cheaply, you won't be competing with a robotaxi network.
And they won't be selling you robotaxi software at any price.
And if someone does develop FSD software and sells it to individuals, there's still the issue of competing with a network. You won't compete with Uber even if you build similar iPhone and Android apps. The size of the network matters.
There might (or might not) be a transitory period when this software is sold to individuals and there's a rev share agreement.
Musk mused about such scheme but he also hinted that this is not going to last forever.
This is simply a financing and cash flow decision of the CFO.
If Tesla goes unprofitable and cash flow negative, the wall street might loose their minds even if this money is simply an investment into robotaxis that might return 10x in the future.
A simple way to fund robotaxi network without going negative cash flow is the sell the car and the software for, say $20k, and then do 30-70% revshare on the $100k of profit (i.e. $30k for Tesla, 70k to car owner, which would end up with 50k profit to Tesla and 50k profit to the owner while keeping Tesla profitable on a quarterly basis).
But eventually Tesla will want all of the $100k profit and will be making more than enough to pay for the cars upfront.
At such time they'll stop selling FSD and cars altogether and go exclusively robotaxi.
The logic doesn't change for GM or Waymo.
I think the burden of proof would be on you for this to be a "when" rather than an "if"