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Comment by venomsnake | Hacker News Reader

The question is are outcomes in vaccinated people comparable to flu - if yes - we can freely ignore it. Or people that have natural immunity. Or unvaccinated.

I have a bad feeling that with focus just on antibodies we're ignoring the important metrics. Which is outcomes.

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The outcomes are pretty clear already, 10 times more official deaths globally compared to a bad flu. And we know the official death counts is under-counted by a 4x-10x factor.

> And we know the official death counts is under-counted by a 4x-10x factor.

Or it could be overcounted by a sizable chunk too. Nobody really knows the actual count and we probably won't until the dust settles and cooler heads prevail. The only thing we can do at this point is take the numbers we have at face value.

Yes, that is a possibility. But given the data on excess mortality, it seems unlikely.

The Economist has a model worth checking out: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

Also, I agree that focusing on the face-value numbers is a good call, practically speaking.

It would be very surprising if death counts were overcounted by a lot, because excess mortality rates have spiked massively since COVID-19 hit the scene, and in general are higher than the COVID-19 reported death rates.

So, for it to be overcounted, you would need to have an explanation for the reason that not just the recent excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19 have jumped so much, but that the 'real' causes of death have overshot and bit into the COVID numbers.

> And we know the official death counts is under-counted by a 4x-10x factor.

Not even California undercounted that much and they are among the worst under counters in the western world, if we compare Covid deaths to excess mortality. Death undercounts are closer to 30% at worst.

If I remember correctly, that number is true of the US. Globally speaking, The Economist has it pegged at 3.9x. A far cry from 10x, but also a far cry from an undercount of 30%.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

I was speaking globally:

> Taken together, the researchers found that excess deaths were estimated to be in the range of 3.4 million to 4.7 million - about 10 times higher than India's official Covid-19 death toll.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57888460

But that question is far harder to answer than testing the viral proteins in a lab. You seem to be dismissing this research whilst suggesting they concentrate on something that is probably impossible, thankfully, due to the fact that this variant hasn't spread much.

It is possible to determine, but only in hindsight, which is really the worst sort of possible.

Sure, it's hard to test things in real world conditions, but that doesn't mean we should over extrapolate from in vitro findings. In particular, infecting cells easier in a lab doesn't mean the virus spreads from person to person easier.

Besides, the fact this variant hasn't spread much is telling in and of itself! Maybe we got 'lucky'. But maybe it just isn't that contagious, compared to Delta.

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