If it was just one item, such as graphics cards, I wouldn’t be particularly concerned. The problem is it’s a bit of everything, a mere 11-ish years after the Great Recession, which was itself “supposed” to be a once-a-century economic catastrophe.
Sure, it affects everything and given the complex interconnections and dependencies within production chains / networks, the cause-and-effect relationships are hard to understand and cause for concern. But given how complex and decentralized things are, I am still amazed we haven't seen worse effects (yet). I doubt that spare capacity in logistics alone would make a huge difference, because you'd also need spare parts, materials and manufacturing capacity, all of which are part of the same network.
The spiral is in its early innings right now. Hold on tight!
They check real-time shipping costs and choose the cheaper option. It takes a few dollars worth of cardboard to turn a shipping container into a suitable container for corn or soybean shipping (really!).
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_origin...
or more likely, it happens, but because of prior experience, the event is no longer as calamitous as the first time.
Looking at the GFC in 2008, the monetary policy back then was too tight (hindsight 20/20 and all that of course), causing the recession to be extended longer than it would've.
This covid disaster would've caused a similar problem, imho, if the Feds did not loosen up like never before. It "solved" that same problem the GFC produced. Had the GFC not occured, the pandemic would cause a double wammy - a medical problem, and also a monetary problem.