I have been through this before

I believe this article is a testament that when something needs to be done but nobody really knows what to do, the structures of power will demand you do this or that regardless.

This incoherent demanding is from a fundamental need of power to project power and is harmful to those subject to it.

The lesson to take away that "trust the experts" as a general motto is nonsense, especially the more we move away from pure math into things that are much more difficult to decide.

This is especially true if people are forced against their will, violating their freedom rights. Sure, taking away your kids is on the far end of the scale. But thousands of people have quit their jobs or been fired over vaccine mandates. Peoples lives and businesses have been destroyed over lockdowns. How do you justify this, with studies like this coming out:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-28/getting-v...

People have been called conspiracy theorists a year ago when the "lab leak theory" was being discussed. Major news outlets would call you a racist lunatic. You would think they'd become more humble, but they didn't. They simply continue to repeat the officially sanctioned narrative and enforcing the Overton window. They simply are downstream of power.

It has become abundantly clear to anyone who follows the topics in-depth that politicians and institutions are barely competent, and they should have very limited power over people's lives.

This scares me too. So many people seem to be eager to believe that the people around them are one dimensional cartoon villains.

It seems like some people have a lot of trouble with uncertainty. They have a need to decisively put things in a nice well defined box, even when there isn't sufficient evidence to do so. I think they might just be unable to say, "you know what, I'm not sure". It's much easier to say " well the news said xyz with their big flashy headlines, so that must be true. Shun the nonbelievers!"

Humans are tribal. This is enables cooperation and has some other pro-social effects, but it also means there is an out-group. Looking at history, over a long enough time horizon, the probability of minority genocide in a society approaches one.

People today like to pretend we have overcome this, that we have ascended - reborn like the New Soviet Man. This will have grave consequences, and their children will curse them for it.

It's really hard for us as a species to accept that in sufficiently complex systems, seemingly small issues can cascade into serious issues.

In the tech sector it's well known that sometimes something as innocent as a particular server failing can expose an emerging property that ends up taking down major networks such as Google, Cloudflare, Facebook or similar. This is companies with millions on the line in the case of downtimes and they spend millions ensuring that it does not happen.

I don't know about that. Look at climate change and you see the reverse: we are likely are responsible, but plenty of people aren't prepared to accept that.

I suspect there's a large factor of rejecting that which is personally inconvenient.

I'm not a fan of "as a species" arguments. It fails to understand potentiality, i.e., that something can remain substantially (or put another way, intrinsically) the same while changing. Development and the actualization of inherent potential are important to understand.

A human baby cannot walk. If all you ever saw were infants, given "as a species" reasoning of this sort, you would conclude that human beings "as a species" have difficulty walking. Or basic literacy. Hundreds of years ago (not even) most people were illiterate. Today, literacy in developed countries at least is over 90%.

Reasoning and knowing are like that in the sense that you have the potential to reason well and to know things, but you aren't born with these things actualized. Reasoning well requires practice and refinement, and coming to know things requires the exercise of reason. So you have the potential to develop the prior faculties developmentally and then the potential to refine those faculties once you have them.

Also proper exercise of reason requires virtue. Vices corrupt the use of reason by introducing impure motives (envy might lead a person to deny truths he would prefer not be true, for example, or to accept sloppy reasoning because the conclusion is desired out of ill will).

That it is easy for many people to blame individual things or root causes in a tidy way is not a fault with the species, but a fault with people who either want an easy scapegoat for their real or imagined predicament and want to shoehorn everything into a single, easy-to-blame box, or people who suck at reasoning.