Note that Oceania had some of the longest and strictest lockdowns in the world, but very low actual covid deaths. But Oceania had very low excess deaths, so lockdowns don't seem to be a good explanation.
Lack of imagination much? See other commenter below explaining the various reasons why you might see excess death. Not everything is linked to COVID (at least not directly).
You'd also expect some level of lag, a decrease in preventative care would lead to things like missed cancer, not immediate excess mortality, which is the observed effect.
Healthcare in the US is broken. Many people go to the ER for non-emergency reasons because ERs can't turn people away when they lack insurance. People also go to the ER for non-technically-emergency reasons because it's often the only way to get medical assistance outside of office hours (frequently 8am - 5pm, Monday through Friday.)
So ER visits dropped 42%... what does that mean exactly? For example: people having heart attacks deciding to die at home vs. people who hurt themselves over a weekend deciding to skip the ER and wait to go to their doctor's office on Monday?
they poll was done where 1-4 people said they wouldnt visit hospital if they were having a heart attack or stroke because they were afraid of covid
What has the mortality rate from heart attacks and stroke been since early 2020?
But I think the issue is that the CDC data about ER visits and the LA Times story just don't say anything about how non-COVID deaths, but deaths 'due to' the COVID pandemic, have affected the excess mortality.
Nobody (at least nobody worth listening to) is saying that zero people died because they didn't go to the ER, because they missed preventative care appointments, or because of misdiagnosis. But that's simply not the cause of the majority of the excess deaths.
What numbers would you want to see on that? I suspect they're available...
From another of your comments on this post: This covid stuff, I see a lot of people dying and a lot of money changing hands and a lot of... unclear things happening very fast all around us.
By money changing hands do you mean the claim that hospitals exaggerate their COVID numbers because they get more money somehow? This is disproven, and many fact-checks have been published about it. Here's one from a FOX affiliate: https://fox11online.com/news/fox-11-investigates/fact-check-...
things happening very fast all around us.
That's very true. Being in the middle of a brand-new pandemic is disorienting. As time goes on, we'll have more hard data to guide policy decisions. Let's hope that politicians use it.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e1.htm
"The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated. "
Or better yet, just glance their infographic:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/social-media/mm6923e1...
If you read between the lines, you know they have a serious problem here with people avoiding care.
Billionaires net worth increased 70% [trillions] during pandemic: https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/28/politics/billionaire-wealth-t...
And I will say this: personally I've done quite well financially during the pandemic, through tech wages and investments. And part of me thinks, well the shift we are doing as a society is necessary as we step into the future. But part of me also feels bad for the people who have to lose and die to make this shift happen. We have so much momentum towards where our society feels it is destined to be, and covid just feels like an excuse to be another step in that direction. Maybe I should just shut my mouth and let it happen, but Im an idiot so there you have it.
"The number of visits for conditions including nonspecific chest pain and acute myocardial infarction decreased, suggesting that some persons could be delaying care for conditions that might result in additional mortality if left untreated."
Yep. Nobody is claiming that number is zero.
The CDC report also notes "NSSP found that emergency department (ED) visits declined 42% during the early COVID-19 pandemic... with the steepest decreases in persons aged ≤14 years, females, and the Northeast."
People aged ≤14 years just don't account for a large percentage of ER deaths.
Or better yet, just glance their infographic:
That infographic is confusing. While it says "A decline in visits for serious conditions might result in complications or death" that is not a statement about the 42% number. ER visits declined that much overall. (My guess based on the "might result in complications or death" phrasing is that it's supposed to be a warning for the general public to not skip the ER for serious conditions.)
Re. myocardial infarction, https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234 reports an increase of approximately 30,000 deaths in the US in 2020 due to heart disease.
Skimming https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/13/how-we-e... I don't see if they take into account known numbers such as that one. It does note
"Many people with treatable medical conditions have died because they did not receive appropriate health care. Conversely, other people have survived who, were it not for the behavioural changes induced by covid-19, would have died from causes like influenza, air pollution or car accidents."
What statistics would give you more confidence in excess death counts?
People avoiding hospitals because of COVID is an effect of COVID.
I'll be very brutally honest here though. This covid stuff, I see a lot of people dying and a lot of money changing hands and a lot of... unclear things happening very fast all around us. It rather bothers me. Whenever this USA nation has a crisis the opportunists seem to rise out of nowhere to exploit it, and the common man suffers.
I laughed with her then. I don't anymore.
No, its not. It’s an effect of the perception that hospitals provide an elevated risk of catching COVID plus some desire to avoid hospitalization given the COVID control measures in hospitals. (There's also some effect that isn't avoidance but some services actually cancelled at hospitals due to actual or anticipated COVID caseload or as part of control measures.)
> COVID is still with us
True.
> and people have stopped avoiding the hospitals
No, they haven't, though that's dropped from the peak and widespread use and awareness of telehealth services (which stabilized at a nearly 40× the pre-pandemic utilization rate) may mean that less of that avoidance of hospitals and other medical facilities is avoidance of medical services entirely.
Oceania largely managed to contain the virus until broad vaccination coverage was achieved in vulnerable populations. That would seem to be the most straightforward explanation for the lack of excess deaths in Oceania.
Is the BMI of USA the same as all of Oceania? What other factors are in play as well? Probably a lot I would imagine.