Ten red flags in the FDA's risk-benefit analysis to vaccinate children aged 5-11 | Hacker News Reader

Ten red flags in the FDA's risk-benefit analysis to vaccinate children aged 5-11

tobyrogers.substack.com

12 pointsincrudible8 comments

> COVID-19 rates in children ages 5 to 11 are so low that there were ZERO cases of severe COVID-19 and ZERO cases of death from COVID in either the treatment (n= 1,518) or control group (n= 750).

The author seemingly uses minimizing deaths as the only measure of benefit; I don’t see a discussion of minimizing or avoiding what have been called long-COVID effects.

Honestly I have no idea if children suffer from long-COVID: either how badly or what percentage of cases but a cursory search suggests that they do. Certainly I would expect that it’s easier to use a binary metric like death in a risk-benefit analysis but I was hoping a professional in the field would have some way to account for these other risks.

> Honestly I have no idea if children suffer from long-COVID: either how badly or what percentage of cases but a cursory search suggests that they do.

Here's a study on it:

https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-798316/v1/8248091...

Hazard ratios are in the ballpark of 2 or less, with the exception of "loss of smell". The vaccines only reduce that ratio by about 50%, going by this data:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

We also don't know, in general, much about "long-COVID" and the effect of vaccination on that.

> avoiding what have been called long-COVID effects.

Long covid is a fabrication. Every disease carries effects that can last for several months after recovery. That's not "long" if it's not chronic.

I think we’re splitting hairs here about terminology. You say that long covid is a fabrication but people can have effects lasting months after recovery. And maybe I’m not using long-COVID in a standard way.

But what I’m fundamentally saying is that if one of the potential benefits is me NOT feeling like garbage for a month or more then I think that shoulder enter into the risk-benefit calculus.

I don't disagree, but what are the odds? There's a decent chance the vaccine itself will make you feel like garbage, perhaps not for a month. Then there's a chance you will get some other infection after vaccination, because your immune system is now busy dealing with a fake COVID infection. Then, there's decent chance you will get infected with COVID after a few months anyway, even symptomatically. What I'm missing is a holistic analysis of the health outcomes. See also my other comment.

Author's bio: "speaking common sense truths daily in order to break the grip of Pharma totalitarianism."

I'm hoping this is only on HN because it's early in the morning.

If you stare into the abyss for long enough, the abyss stares back at you.

Personally, I can't help but be amused about the champagne socialist faction demanding that people get vaccinated with the product of decades worth of risk capital seeking ROI.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com