Programming is becoming more complicated over time. The increase in complexity will offset the increased availability of basic literacy. We see this in Law as well. Though most people can read and write the language of Law, they do not understand the implications of what they read and would write. Similarly, though someone may read and write code, they may not understand the implications of what they do. Same for scriptwriters or novelists.

Programming is as singular a profession as "writing" is a singular profession; instead of the future you seem to imagine, I foresee something else entirely.

Just as there are lawyers, scriptwriters, journalists, novelists, biographers, bloggers and tweeters, so too will there be an increased societal understanding of the differentiation already happening within code-writing. Embedded, Systems, Application, UX.

Further, programming (like law) is a profession whose mastery requires an understanding of an ever-increasingly complicated system. While there is a glut of fresh law grads, there is also high demand for lawyers with niche skill sets.

In short, yes. Low-end programmers will continue to get paid less but high-end programmers will probably get paid more, and there will be more of them, but not as a percentage of all programmers (but as a percentage of the population as a whole.) Also, more people will program as an adjunct to their existing responsibilities.