Comment by speby | Hacker News Reader

Comment by speby | Hacker News Reader

No no no no. Let's go down the list, shall we. Remember, COVID or not, remote work trend accelerating or not, things have not changed as much as they seem:

* People STILL want to migrate to the US and it will remain one of the top choices. People move her for economic/job opportunities, sure, but that's not all.

* Outsourcing (or hiring remote teams in remote offices), as well as setting up remote and international offices has been going on for .... I can't even remember. 100 years? This was already happening and will keep happening.

* Timezones are a physical problem and cannot be fixed. Sorry. Remote work or not, people don't want to work at 1 AM so they can talk to another team half-way around the world at 7 AM. This was true yesterday and it will remain true today.

* Culture issues will remain. True yesterday. True today.

* Language issues will remain. True yesterday. True today.

* US will continue to remain a country people WANT to live in and stay in once they are here. Remote work will certainly allow some people to move abroad and continue working because that's something they really want. But the data definitely doesn't suggest some sea change here. True yesterday. Remains largely true today.

I think the realization people had through the pandemic is that a very large part of the western world is equally livable. Apart from economic opportunity, what else is there on US soil that makes it comparably preferable? And i think you re forgetting that the US has been outsourcing its manufacturing to china for decades, and china is , what 15 hours difference? Most of work is asynchronous

I think the US has nothing to fear from remote work -- they will outsource even more work and again benefit from the arbitrage. But it is true that it will diminish their talent advantage, and that will be good for them.

But it's good for exactly who they are - the management. As long as Americans are replaced time and again, it changes the US. We used to care for each other. I think the fact that the greed machine is so precise and backstabbing and self-documented and codified there's nothing to tell it to stop hiring people outside the US simply for cheaper labor.

I keep seeing people say that the economy is not a zero sum game - but all I see is people getting poorer and offered worse jobs with fewer benefits.

I think however there is ONE potential out: Building HOMES. It seems that the people that DO have a really high paying job is willing to pay 1M for a 2 bedroom house. I think the next major thing is for people to pick up the hammer and build houses for rich people wanting their second and third home. Next change for the laws? Make it easier to get a Gen-Con license...?

In ten years robots will take over many of the current construction jobs.

Which jobs specifically? Foundations, Framing, Painting, Placing Windows, Doors, Sealing, Insulation, Drywall, Plumbing, Electrical?

If I were to take a shot in the dark it would be less than 1% of the jobs. I can see painting robots but even that would be a miserable robot that would look good in a youtube video but when you ask the crew that's forced to use it, they will tell you clearing the paint clogs is taking more time than rolling/spraying the wall themselves.

> As long as Americans are replaced time and again, it changes the US. We used to care for each other. I think the fact that the greed machine is so precise and backstabbing and self-documented and codified there's nothing to tell it to stop hiring people outside the US simply for cheaper labor.

Heh, the bit about caring... Let's go:

* strike busters (sometimes extremely violent, there are documented case of actual cannons or bombers)

* rampant child labor

* super high crime rates

I think perception of the past is often affected by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fading_affect_bias :

> The fading affect bias, more commonly known as FAB, is a psychological phenomenon in which memories associated with negative emotions tend to be forgotten more quickly than those associated with positive emotions.

i.e. we forget the bad parts faster.

Reading this post it occurred to me that if huge levels of remote work become the norm, there may be consequences for what 'rights' remote workers may obtain at the 'host' richer countries. I mean, somewhat like large companies effectively influenced the mechanisms for immigration, right?

The same may happen wrt. access to financial services (e.g. Facebook employees around the world may eventually be indistinguishable from US citizens for the purpose of opening bank accounts or owning property in the US, etc.), for example. Maybe a particularly bad example because taxation is very complicated and this messes with that too directly

Perhaps a better example would relate to access to State-sponsored programs like healthcare. Imagine future in which Amazon, Facebook, Google lobby for allowing a knowledge worker to travel from their country of residence to their country of work to utilize a governmental program that was previously reserved to citizens only. (Add a bit about actual citizens losing that right if they are 'unproductive' and you got yourself a setting for a sci-fi story)

It's late and maybe I'm not making much sense, I don't know. I'm aware there are a million possible reasons why this should not come to pass but at least on law & regulation I think that if the incentives of the companies align with 'extending rights of remote workers towards citizenship-like rights', then law and legislation will be changed via lobbying, etc. without much ordinary citizens can do about it

I offer no judgment of value - simply pointing out something that we may see happen over the next years or decade

Ever since i read Snowcrash I've thought about this. What if major corps developed transnational power: get hired in India, get benefits that include expedited visa processing, global health insurance coverage, company schools or online curricula for children of employees. I mean this exists for senior execs, how would it look when extended to the FAANG rank and file?

Sort of a mobility-focused benefits package. Unlikely, incredibly unfeasible but interesting to ponder.

I was somehow unfamiliar with Snow Crash. Thanks for the pointer!

Also - yes, precisely! The internet abounds with posts about how Apple's market cap is larger than most countries GDP already. If the trend of tech-giants growth keeps pace, we may have multi-trillion dollar companies whose revenue will rival nations' GDPs.

At that point, the 'guild' of workers around the world will may have enough political power to be backed by the company, which will have enough leverage to influence law everywhere.

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