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Comment by mg | Hacker News Reader

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla gets their self driving software to a human level within the next 5 years. And that this will be a huge wake-up call for mankind. To think about the future in the face of AI.

I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember.

If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start thinking about how the world will look like when everything is automated. This will be a huge challenge and adventure.

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I would actually expect the opposite - that FSD gets banned in the short term because mistakes are a. inevitable and b. super, super dangerous.

I think self driving cars only become safe when every vehicle is capable of self driving, and infrastructure is adapted accordingly.

happy to be proven wrong though!

You could have made the same prediction for the past 6-7 years and you would have been wrong every time. Sure, it might happen some day but I don't know why 2022 should be different from 2021.

I have worked on some hard engineering problems in my life, where one could not have been sure if it is possible to find a solution. In my experience, when you get to a "From here on it is just more of the same" situation, that is a strong indicator that a solution will be found in the near future.

And that is the feeling I get when I watch FSD videos these days.

5 years ago, people were celebrating lane changes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7jNHFwZ3Ec

Nowadays, FSD drives through all kinds of weird scenarios:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LISLFHCPWrw

And people complain about specific situations FSD can not handle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT2H42k7Z1g

I'm pretty sure someone at Tesla sees this and thinks "Hmm.. we can solve this in a similar way we solved lane changes".

I expect Tesla to give up on driving by cameras, and simplier solutions requiring less processing power, but a more bespoke combination of hires maps, cameras, lidars, and other sensors, to acheive practical FSD before Telsa.

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