It's unlikely that they'll die from climate change. But it is much more likely that they'll die from wars caused by climate change. It is pretty much certain that their lives will be much worse because of climate change.
For kids in rich countries, it is much more likely that they'll kill in wars caused by climate change (or vote / pay for soldiers to do the killing for them).
Sadly, climate refugees will be an easy target for modern armies, and when voters see millions of starving people trying to cross their borders, they will listen to the politicians who call this an invasion that needs a forceful response.
Some places are already seeing these harsh political forces playing out, for example the UK, where the government is trying to make it illegal to rescue asylum seekers in boats[0] at a time when dozens can die on a single failed crossing.[1]
[0] https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/07/priti-patel-ma...
[1] https://news.sky.com/story/migrant-crossings-several-people-...
I wonder how similar the UK are being in terms or Pr argument and international law…
Where do you live?
I'm originally from Brazil, I live now in Sweden.
In Brazil during my lifetime I lived through a massive deforestation of the Amazon. I saw landscapes change from lush jungles into arid and depleted soils. I went to places in the Pantanal area as a kid that were completely transformed 20 years later, rivers drying up and a different kind of flora was taking over parts of what used to be wetlands.
In Sweden I have less than a decade around so my own experience is pretty limited. Here I can only get a glimpse of the changes through the eyes of my local friends, my girlfriend parents and other older people I talk to have noticed how much shorter and warmer winters have got. How hot summers are happening more frequently. The winter season used to last almost a month longer and snow wasn't a possibility but a given. Now they live through winters where less than 5 days of snowy days are a reality. Planning your skiing season varies a lot between years where when I talk to older people they just used to consider it a given that there would be a skiing season in most parts of the country (maybe except for the south in Skåne).
The warming is much more prominent closer to the poles.
The climate is not changing slowly in my experience, given the size of the system it's changing pretty fucking fast.
Another example, 8 years ago when we built our house, we did the roof between Christmas and New Year's Eve. We worked in t-shirts because otherwise it wasn't bearable at close to 20 ° C in plain sun. In dead winter, normal temperatures would have been more like -10° C. And somewhere around 20 cm of snow.
I remember 6 hundred-year floods from top of my head in the last 20 years. Climate change is here, it is happening. And at least where I live you see it everyday.
Some blame the fall of Rome on climate change, but if it hasn't been rotten at its core it would have withstood the challenge easily.
China is becoming hyper aggressive towards Taiwan.
Serious war is around the corner. Not hypothetical wars.
For example your narrative is failing to account for the horror of mutually assured destruction which is a strong psychological factor in wars between major powers.
Maybe a couple of islands and a bit of India. Then a break for a few years. Repeat now and then.
Russia has had troops around Ukraine for the last 7 years. The Donetsk and Lugansk "republics" exist since 2014. Russia is waiting for Ukraine's move since then.
As long as USA has bases in Japan and has military presence in Taiwan... China won't make a move. It's easier to wait for USA to leave though.
We'll see continuous provocation between the blocks (most recently, Afghanistan Taliban Regime, Belorussian usage of immigrants against the EU, etc). But a serious war around the corner sounds a bit too far from reality.
China is doing the same now with Taiwan. Try calling Taiwan a country as a movie star -> forced apology. Bodies like the IOC already falted. No guarantee that sometime someone tries, or feels forced to try for whatever reason, to push it. If the West doesn't react to that, well, then all the others will push the limits as well.
USA has lost its image of "being the police of the world" and the countries that depend on that image are suffering. Their future looks quite grim. Besides that, Taiwan isn't recognized by the UN since 1971 and by the IOC since 1981. The west didn't react back then either.
Cuban mistake crisis happened because Kennedy was perceived as weak willed. The generals behind him were not and pushed him hard toward stronger response. Was close to an American revolt.
Serious war may look different from the past of nation-state wars. We're living through the emergence of network states. Given how the Internet enables non-tangible property (I.e., domain names that one can use to build businesses, associations, non-profits; bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto-projects) through communications protocols and cryptographic mathematics, its no longer necessary to wage physical war to gain an advantage. Thus we see a massive rise in persistent threat actors, which could be world war three already happening, but we don't recognize it yet because we're used to observing nation-state wars, not network state wars. Perhaps the modern age of nation state dominance ran from the Peace of Westphalia to 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the design of the World-Wide-Web by Berners-Lee.
So, you're not wrong, but also omitting a significant actual current threat.
Adults solved this for me as a kid, there was no need to tell me that I'd have trouble going outside if there were no clouds, in my future. They could have saved me the hardship.
Not worth dwelling on.
I believe there is a risk that the current activistic climate movement will do similar harm to the society in general as the last decades aggressive movement to liberalism in the "west part" of the world. The liberalistic movement is like running with a rubber band - it will force the societies to become repressive. I hope I'm wrong, but the climate change movement will similar cause (negative) unplanned effects..