Good news, selection pressure is for more-contagious and less-deadly. It will happen eventually, and then covid will be just another common cold.
You know that Smallpox was in cows (aka: Cowpox), right? We still wiped it out.
Smallpox, Measles, Polio. We've wiped out diseases before, and we can do it again if we so try. I'm frankly more flabbergasted that people don't even know the history of diseases and are so pessimistic about this subject...
It seems unlikely that many cows caught smallpox, given the prevalence of cowpox. Cowpox is a different disease, and was the first vaccine, after which the very concept of "vaccination" is named. Milkmaids had long been known for their immunity to smallpox. If smallpox had been in cows, milkmaids would have been known for universal smallpox exposure instead.
> I'm frankly more flabbergasted that people don't even know the history of diseases
Not a good look.
That conferred immunity to smallpox. Which makes it about as "different" as Omicron is to Delta or COVID19.
In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox.
Sure, that's fair.
> In any case, Cowpox is case-positive proof of animal reservoirs of smallpox.
Huh? No, it isn't.
UK eradicated Rabies. I'm pretty sure we all agree Rabies has substantial animal reservoirs, right?
So... small, mostly deforested island countries may have a good chance against animal-borne viruses that have inexpensive edible vaccines.
The wealthiest country in the world hasn't managed to eradicate rabies. Covid isn't going to end this way.
There's a lot of diseases we've eradicated. Surely something will come along that you don't have an excuse for.
Leprosy is bacterial and treated with antibiotics. Same with bubonic plague, if that was next on your list.
I believe COVID19 continues because we have a ~60% vaccination rate in the USA, which is far below the needed vaccination rate to slow down the spread of the disease.
A lot of these other diseases brought up have substantial 95%+ vaccination rates, or treatments that can hamper the spread.
No disease is equivalent to another. Smallpox and Measles had much higher spread R0 / replication rates. Others are bacterial. Cholera is water-borne and solved with other methodologies.
Efficacy dropped to 60% vs Delta, and drops again to 30% vs Omicron. Boosters seem to rise back up to 90% vs Delta and 75% vs Omicron.
That's why so many people are talking about boosters: it has a measurable impact on transmission for Omicron (and Delta).
Also, IIRC Sinovac’s Coronavirus vaccine is an “old style” inactivated virus vaccine, and the J&J one is an adenovirus vector vaccine. They are not as effective as the mRNA vaccines.
Measles is 3x more infectious than even Delta.
Current vaccines are 95% effective against the original strain, 60% vs Delta, unknown vs Omicron.
You boost the vaccine however, and you're back to 90% efficacy vs Delta, and like 75% vs Omicron.
Its all about R0. If the efficacy (and compliance) is above the 1 / R0 rate, then eradication is possible.
As its "efficacy times compliance", the number we wish to maximize is the smaller number. Efficacy may have dropped to 60% (double shot vs Delta), but a 3rd booster brings the efficacy back up to 90%.
Compliance however, is stuck around 60% in the USA in general, and a large number of people are refusing to get the booster. As such, compliance is the number we need to work on right now.
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Going from 90% to 99% vaccine efficacy barely does anything, because our vaccine compliance numbers are so damn low.
It's not a problem in any area with high vaccine compliance.
What selection pressure exists to make it less-deadly? It takes weeks for the virus to kill people and they are most infectious early on.
This is why island populations all get sick when a ship comes in.
But to the other commenter's point, if omicron DID get a more deadly variant that kills you after you've already infected other people due to presymptomatic spread, then why would that variant be likely to die out? It's already reproduced before killing the host
A disease that spreads before it's symptomatic may not face negative selection pressure for some individuals, but on the aggregate people wear masks, avoid contact, even entered lockdowns, are more likely to obtain vaccination, and so on.
There's a stronger behavioral response to a more deadly covid than there is to one that is entirely harmless. It's not just death that reduces rates of transmission, and it's not just sick or symptomatic people who avoid contact.
The selection pressure that sometimes selects for weaker viral variants is stronger viral variants killing their hosts in droves, thus preventing the stronger variants from passing on their genetics to new hosts.
That selection pressure doesn't exist, because people are not dropping like flies due to COVID. The virus is free to mutate into something stronger because there is little pressure to stop it.
If left alone, yes. We are not leaving it alone.