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The answer is obvious and right before your eyes: you can't.

This problem has been examined again and again. The only way to find people with sufficient skill in any field is to test them (formal graded test, not idiosyncratic problems).

No one has ever demonstrated a reliable technique for selecting "great" software developers (or great scientists, or great engineers, &etc).

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Exactly. It's akin to asking, "How can I tell that I've found Mrs. Right (or Mr. Right) during the first hour of talking to someone?"

I read about a study a few years back that required participants to spend some time with a member of whatever gender they're most attracted to. Each pair was required to (I think) do something slightly exciting and challenging together, talk about something significant, and look into each other's eyes a lot.

If I remember it correctly, several of the pairs from the study were engaged shortly thereafter.

So the answer to your question is simple, but not for the reasons you think.

Would love a link to that if you can find it (assuming it exists somewhere on the interwebs).

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