If you have OP's level of control over the hardware (ie; you have a dedicated server on which you can access the hypervisor), then taking incremental backups of the entire VM is the best way to ensure you can hit the big undo button if anything goes wrong.

The most important, and neglected, part of backup & restore, is the restore. If resources permit, this is where I like to use a battle tested solution instead of rolling my own with scripts. For my self hosted servers I use Veeam, but there are many good alternatives.

It's nice having the option to restore the entire VM to a specific state, and to also be able to mount backups and pull files if only a few need to be restored. It's also handy to be able to spin up a backup into its own virtual machine.