Comment by recursive | Hacker News Reader

Comment by recursive | Hacker News Reader

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I think the marshmallow test is pretty flawed itself. But maybe the marshmallow test is actually a good analogy. I suspect many of the test "failures" were caused because the test subject (kid) didn't trust the authority figure (test administrator). When you can see a marshmallow with your own eyes, it's more believable. I think it's quite reasonable to factor in some probability that an untrusted stranger would "alter the deal". If you take the marshmallow now, no one can bait-and-switch you.

And it's starting to look like a pretty good description. There are plenty of people who were on-board with the "temporary" restrictions initially who are now doubting that these promised marshmallows are ever going to be delivered. I'm vaxxed. And I'm done. Good luck on getting your marshmallows.

The fact that college campuses (which have ~100% vaccination rates as well as young student bodies that are far less likely to face severe symptoms from COVID) are reinstituting lockdowns makes it abundantly clear that the marshmallows are never, ever coming.

Some college campuses could also be better choices for lockdows because they're hotbeds of international students.

"International students" are not an at-risk group.

"Just two weeks to flatten the curve!"

I would be in favor of a two week shut down to act like a short circuit breaker for Omicron. But I have no trust in local authorities, who let "two weeks" turn into months of restrictions even when hospitalization rates were low in 2020.

This is the test. People can talk themselves out of any positive thing based on the reasoning of "I don't trust authority". but those who are considered very successful in any profession have to learn to 1) delay gratification 2) place trust in the right people

Blind mistrust in authority is as detrimental to long term outcomes as not being able to delay gratification

I just picked what seemed like a well-known analogy for the long-term value of managing short-term emotional response. You could use other analogies if you want, like putting beer money into an IRA, or eating more veggies, etc.

I think the marshmallow test is more illustrative than those for the reasons I mentioned.

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