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Comment by HWR_14 | Hacker News Reader

It's not just loans, it's COVID.

If I were college-age and I were planning on going to college I would certainly do one of two things. I would postpone college until the COVID issues died down -or- I would use the fewer applicants to get into a more prestigious school banking on a better 3 year experience (out of 4) starting in the fall of 2022 and more impressive degree going forward. Either way, I can imagine admittance numbers falling off.

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Tend to agree. I did my Masters degree (pre-Covid) as part of a predominantly online program at a large university. It worked out well, but I cannot even begin to imagine doing an undergraduate program remotely and missing out on the campus experience. There's much more to "going off to college" than taking classes, and I fully understand why 18-22 year olds would not want to shell out tens of thousands of dollars to miss the bulk of that experience.

I'm currently about 2/3 through an online Master's degree: Georgia Tech OMSCS. Same as you?

For me it's been a drastically different experience compared to my in-person undergrad. Whereas my Bachelor's degree was full of camaraderie and formative life experiences, my Master's has been more or less bereft of social or personal growth and focused entirely on course material. This is okay for me since my primary goal is to develop a deeper technical background, but I would not recommend such an experience for your average 18 year old kid who is about to start their first university experience.

I hope there will be student towns with mostly students taking online courses for the camaraderie and learning by helping out each other.

Apart from the labs, I do not see a reason to go to college to learn.

> I hope there will be student towns with mostly students taking online courses for the camaraderie and learning by helping out each other.

You just described a campus.

Agreed. About 50% of the value I got out of uni was outside the classroom. Though now I’m good to take online courses as I’m looking for skills, not personal transformation

This makes a lot of sense. I took a couple online classes when I was in college, and despite my efforts, I definitely didn't learn as much as I would have otherwise. THere's something about someone telling you something in person that makes it easier for my brain to absorb, even if it's in a giant lecture hall and you don't go to office hours. I can recall accounting principles (taken in person) far better than material from my project management class (taken online). I took the former for an easy minor and never use what I learned, but the latter has proven much more important in my career, yet I managed to forget it all.

And my online classes were explicitly taken online, with professors who had done online stuff before, not hastily moved online in the midst of a pandemic. Knowing how computer-averse some of my professors were, I can only imagine the transition to online was rough, and I bet I'd be scared away from online classes in college if I had to go through high school like that, even if I got a full ride.

And, as others have said, going to college isn't just for the degree. Yes, that's a big part of it (the expensive piece of paper at the end), but just being able to be away from your parents really helps you grow up and become independent.

> And my online classes were explicitly taken online, with professors who had done online stuff before, not hastily moved online in the midst of a pandemic. Knowing how computer-averse some of my professors were, I can only imagine the transition to online was rough, and I bet I'd be scared away from online classes in college if I had to go through high school like that, even if I got a full ride.

Universities are moving into a new space by taking so much online, and people will realize that some institutions are better at this than others. MOOCs can be done well, but it is largely not those traditional institutions that will be doing that.

I'm very interested to see if some education disruptors come out of this time.

I do applicant interviews for my alma mater (MIT). The number of students applying has skyrocketed, and it sounds like it's the same for peer schools.

https://thetech.com/2021/03/18/regular-admissions-2025

Tuition has doubled since I went there, but at least they can afford good financial aid for those who can get in.

Yeah I suspect people have wised up to the fact that the alumni base of a program matters more than pretty much anything else. So unless you’re at a prestige program at a prestige school, college probably isn’t going to pay off as well. Thus the piling in to elite universities while overall enrollment drops off.

You've hit the nail on the head here.

Education is primarily a prestige product. Secondarily, the social and alumni effects of the network around you when you attend. Thirdly, it is the college campus experience. Fourthly, it is what you actually learn.

If you just price the value of each of these four pieces, the dynamic in the market is completely explained. Community college still provides learning, but not much on the other three factors. That is, it has become poor value for the fees it charges despite them being lower in absolute terms than prestige schools.

The prestige is all that matters. It’s really the only chance someone has to achieve class mobility; i.e. a kid from the working class might get into an Ivy League prestige program and rub elbows with the children of rich and powerful people, thus getting access to that network.

But if you’re going to a second-tier state university I really wonder if any of those students are getting a positive payback.

Prestigious schools are seeing record numbers of applications, and record low in acceptance rates. If there is a hit in college attendance, its not happening at the top of the food chain.

True, but prestigious schools are playing games. For example, my alma mater is currently waiving the application fee for students they know will not get in simply so they can reject them. It is incredibly fucked up.

Why? To juice application numbers?

Couldnt it just be wanting to waive fees for those it would help? How are they supposed to only waive fees for those who have a shot at getting in?

Yes to juice application numbers. Acceptance rate is something heavily considered by the AP in college rankings.

Sadly, the ship has sailed on that one. Apparently college applications have been unusually cutthroat this year.

The problem is, the pandemic has been in full swing for the past two application seasons, and you can only take so many gap years.

There is a large backlog of very talented students. It's not a good time to be an applicant.

I suppose a lot of people opted for a gap year in the 2021-2022 school year for the same reason, and they're applying now.

>. I would postpone college until the COVID issues died down

What would you do instead?

Work. Save money.

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