If that side effect has 12.6 in a million odds, what are the odds of an active HN user experiencing it?
This leads to a P value of approximately 0.0014, which is well below the 5% threshold.
This is a very crude calculation, but it does give an idea of what we can expect. Given the small P value, there’s a good chance that the HN community has experienced a similar event to the one described in the article.