Right. I was hoping for something a bit more independent. From all I can tell this is just the opinion of a Russian ex military officer posted on a random blog. Not a particularly great source for independent geopolitical analysis.
During the Vietnam war, the US was so ill informed on history they thought the Vietnamese would join forces with China. However, Vietnam and China have had a very tumultuous past and this was never on the table - far from it. A quick reading of history would dispel those fears. Amazingly, McNamara only learned of this decades later.
In Iraq and Afghanistan, the US made similar errors. They thought installing a democracy would simply replace the tribal power structures Saddam had kept in check for decades. But obviously with him gone, rivalries came right back. 20 years later…
Now that’s not to say Russia is not playing the usual smoke and mirrors games to extract concessions from NATO and West. But it’s good to have this perspective before anybody gets too trigger happy.