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Comment by sega_sai | Hacker News Reader

It would be nice to have a registry of predictions about the stock market, so one could group them by person doing the predicting and their track record. Without that I personally cannot take seriously the stories about impeding stock market crash that appear basically all the time.

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The market is full of bulls and bears, and a large portion of why the market behaves how it behaves is how people expect the market to behave. This is a persuasive piece, attempting to manifest the future.

Unfortunately, you still can't trust someone who's been correct every single time. Considering that there's thousands of people giving predictions, there's likely going to be one person "winning" the coinflips.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_hand

This is in opposition to the nature of markets. It is possible to detect overhang, but impossible to predict when a correction will occur or what the trigger will be. Articles like this talk about the nature of overhang and how it is corrected. What you are talking about is when the correction happens and at what velocity which is something else well apart from what this article discusses and potentially impossible to predict.

Grantham’s track record is hilariously poor. He’s basically been saying the bubble is going to pop for the past 10 years. Eventually he’ll be right.

The only thing we know for sure is no, it’s probably not different this time.

We are fourteen years into an extraordinary boom in asset prices and fourty years into the bond bubble because boomers are frankly greedy and want to pillage as much of their respective country's wealth before they die.

However, the only thing stopping them, the only boomer boogeyman that has ever existed (other than maybe WWIII) has come out of the woodwork: inflation. And now it is somehow still "bears are wrong lol cassandra lol" or whatever? You have to be kidding me.

I'm confused. How does owning bonds translate to people over the age of 58 being greedy?

It must be really convenient to live during a time where your generation have large-scale control of media, politics, and the economy from when they turn 25 until they retire, conveniently inflating financial markets and selling the future of your children's generation so that you can retire early and spend more than your fair share of society's wealth on things that don't matter, just because you were jealous of your parents, who were actually needed in a time of real crisis.

I don't think that's true. He's been saying the market is high and will pop one day for a good part of the last 10 years but this is the first letter in that period to say it's popping. His record compared to other predictors is very good.

Maybe the reason they keep making that prediction is because historically it always crashes eventually.

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