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I doubt there will be AGI in our lifetime. Maybe some breakthrough happens but it won't be even close to human intelligence.

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I dunno. I didn't think consumer-common machine vision was achievable in our lifetimes either, yet everyone has a phone that can do it.

It's like all major tech breakthroughs - it seems impossible despite all the pieces being there, right up until someone puts them together.

Computer vision, image recognition, audio recognition, speech recognition were somewhat easy when Moore's law kicked in and when computer software industry emerged. But AGI is whole another beast. For general intelligence you need to have underlying infrastructure that runs it and guides it just like nervous system does for us people or like operating system does for computers. You can not for example glue together computer vision and speech recognition and call it intelligence when all it does is recognize what it sees and what it hears.

My observation with statements like this both for and against some event occurring is that you'd have to be very specific with the definition of "AGI" and "human intelligence", otherwise everyone ends up claiming they predicted the outcome correctly (e.g. ray kurzweil's prediction evaluations seem to me like an exercise in motivated reasoning)

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