Interestingly enough, there doesn't seem to be any correlation between states like New York and Florida and their polar opposite approaches to mandates. In the end, the data says it made no difference. Why?
[1] https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2022/01/25/chi...
Also quotes from the newspaper article already point out some of the effects predate covid and thus couldn't have been caused by it.
You can't separate the two. The governments response to the pandemic needs to be analyzed, and the huge increase in deaths among black children as a direct result of their policies in regards to the virus, and not due to the virus itself, means those deaths were preventable with a less authoritarian response.
Compare Florida and California. Florida has 50% more deaths per capita. That’s a lot!
3-4% of the people having a risk of death would explain entirely the ~50% more per capita deaths in Florida.
In truth, I don't think you can actually just multiply all of these numbers because they are correlated (and possibly non-linear). Also, the vaccines are less effective in the elderly population.
1. Vaccines reduce the risk of death by more than 90%.
2. Given how effective vaccines are at preventing death, the extreme difference in per capita deaths between Florida and California is entirely attributable to the difference in vaccination rates.