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For what it's worth, the linked page currently does show pre-vote estimates, not the current numbers. The results will be official later.

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Those estimates are generally very accurate.

indeed, they won´t change more than +/- 1,5%

True, however there are lots of 'Briefwähler' (absentee voters) in Berlin who voted weeks ago and the Piratenpartei just got a lot of traction in the last few weeks. Additionally there's a rather weird 5% clause in Berlin that differs from the rest of Germany. Parties have to get 5% of all votes cast, not just 5% of the valid ones. (http://blog.zeit.de/zweitstimme/2011/09/16/aus-der-kategorie...)

However they will probably still be in Parliament, I'm not really sure if they will get as many seats as predicted right now.

generally, the absentee voters in germany do not affect the outcomes pretty much

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