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Comment by slibhb | Hacker News Reader

It's hard to sort it out. I've read stories in American media that describe a Russian troop build-up and make an invasion seem inevitable ("they wouldn't expend these resources to mobilize this many soldiers without plans to invade"). I've also read stories that claim the Russians only have ~10,000 troops at the border, not nearly enough for an invasion, and that the amount hasn't actually changed.

The Ukranians seem to be downplaying the risk of invasion. Whether or not the US media wants a war, it may be the case that they've overestimated the likelihood of an invasion.

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> The Ukranians seem to be downplaying the risk of invasion. Whether or not the US media wants a war, it may be the case that they've overestimated the likelihood of an invasion.

The goal of V. Poopking is to make billions for him and his friends in RF and Germany. For that, he needs Nord Stream 2 to work, so he needs to exchange something for Nord Stream 2. RF has weak economy, so it has nothing to propose in exchange, except safety from RF army.

If RF does not invade Ukraine, Germany will allow Nord Stream 2 to work, which is beneficial for both Poopking and his German partners. Goal achieved.

Germany wants/needs the pipeline, sabre rattling or not.

Yep. Moreover, they don't want USA company (Shell) at their border (in Ukraine), because they compete hard with USA already. So, they asked government for help. The government used their knowledge about soviet spies, collected during hunting for agent 26, to convince Angela to ask her brother for help, promising hundreds of billions of profit in return and strong support for a campaign. So, Vova invaded Ukraine to kick out Shell from Eastern Ukraine, to avoid competition, and to portray Ukraine as an unreliable partner, which can cut Russian gas at any time.

Believe what you want but this¹ is a clear indicator that an invasion is inevitable. 10k troops is likely Russian propaganda. I've read the Russian point of view and it's basically "the US has provoked this by extending NATO into Eastern Europe, Ukraine is controlled by fascists". They have failed to install a pro Russian administration in Ukraine, so their only remaining option is "liberating eastern and southern Ukraine from fascists". I've posted a map with their plans but the comment was downvoted. I'm not posting it again but they basically want to occupy and control the whole Northern Black Sea coast.

1. Russia moves blood supplies near Ukraine, adding to U.S. concern, officials say

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russia-moves-...

Sorry, it was actually 100K which still doesn't seem enough for an invasion. The question is whether the number of soldiers has increased as of late, which the Ukrainians deny.

My overall point is that I don't know whether to trust articles like the one you linked or things the Ukrainians and Russians are saying. It's not that I think the American media is lying exactly but it occurs to me that they may be deluding themselves.

Don't know, but I really wish they are wrong and the Russians are right in their claims that the West is "hysterical". So far all the evidence points towards preparations for an invasion and failure to recognise it as such is just wishful thinking. If they were only amassing troops, it could have been an exercise, but when mobile hospitals start to appear near a conflict area, it means preparations for war. Hopefully this will end like the Russo-Georgian war. Similar military effectives were involved on the Russian part then. To get a better view on this, I'd read what Pavel Felgenhauer has to say about this. He was right in his prediction that Russia was going to attack Georgia in August 2008.

https://jamestown.org/analyst/pavel-felgenhauer/

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