Have you watched Fravor's interview on Lex Fridman? As I recall he says he thinks it must be extraterrestrial. I wouldn't say he's being non-chalant about it.

Regarding the projection theory, it would have to be decades old tech since these sightings have been taking place for decades (not just hearsay, officially documented reports from credible sources). Many of these sightings occur around sensitive military areas, especially nuclear facilities, including an incident in the 60s where a UFO hovered over several missile silos, disabling the weapons one by one in the process.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ex-air-force-personnel-ufos-dea...

I used to think more like you, assuming it was either crackpot conspiracy theories or actual government conspiracies (projection, etc. like you said). But I've changed my opinion on it since last year. If you haven't taken a look at this stuff recently you should really check out the YouTube playlist I shared above. There's definitely something going on, and debunking it is requiring more and more conspiratorial thinking by the day.