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If you are not signed in, the arrow points to a button labelled "+You".

I'm signed in but it still says "+You".

That's funny! In the German version the arrow points to "+Ich", meaning "+I" instead of "+You".

I'd really like to know if your estimation is accurate

Actually just the opposite.

It shows up only when you are NOT signed into your Google account (at least on the top locations I've seen today).

It appeared for me while logged in AND having been on Google+ since around the launch.

Interesting...I'm sure they must be split-testing every combo.

It shows when I am not logged in.