The reason I call out Nopixel specifically is that server' recent prominence and popularity may affect Rockstar's plan for GTA6. For better or for worse, the Nopixel brand has moved GTAV modding towards the mainstream and that has the potential to affect all future modding.
I'm pretty much in agreement with your predictions and concerns about RP in GTA6, I think this is a widely shared view. In addition to your concern about mechanics overriding RP, I would also say that (from my view) RP seems to be most successful when mod devs and admins are closely integrated with the community and able to tweak/add content to prevent things getting stale. It's very hard to see how that could happen with Rockstar administering RP servers.