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It seems like you are very interested in the making money aspect of a startup, from that view point, it doesn't make sense to leave 1 mm on the table to have a slim chance at a big payoff. IMO people who work at startups are either people who are extremely passionate about their work or people who couldn't make it into big tech companies.

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For me is less about the money and more about how the risk is asymmetric for the investors. I get it is how the system works...

The issue is companies DO try to sell the idea their equity is going to be extremely valuable in the future, which is what started me on this rabbit hole to try to quantify how valuable they actually are.

That's just as much handwaving as their pitch deck.

If they are a 100% lock on an profitable exit they wouldn't need you. Or anyone else. Get the cash.

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