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You are right in that had it not been for the US santions, fabrication in China would probably have expanded much more, however it is expanding still:

https://www.semiconductors.org/chinas-share-of-global-chip-s...

China’s Share of Global Chip Sales Now Surpasses Taiwan’s, Closing in on Europe’s and Japan’s

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That list includes many fabless players and isn't a good indication of how much the sanctions would play out in the next few years, as we undergo a massive migration to EUV process nodes, which China is effectively barred from.

The numbers are still low (China has about 10% of the global semi sales but +50% of consumption).

And true, some are fabless and the Chinese fabs fab for foreign customers as well.

How much of that 50% is for devices manufactured in China for export? That business is also undergoing a massive shift, especially now we are close to the end of Covid.

To be fair, the majority of bread-and-butter semiconductor manufacturing probably doesn't need EUV process nodes. You only really need that level of technology if you want to make cutting-edge (10nm or so) devices like microprocessors.

The majority of semiconductor manufacturing is still in the 200nm range -- better yields, cheaper processes, more resilient chips. Some of it is still in the 1um (1 micron) range.

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